Assessment of irrigation system sustainability using the Theil–Sen estimator of slope of time series

Abstract

Agriculture, especially the irrigated sector, is the mainstay of Sudan’s economy as it accounts for 40 % of gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 % of the workforce. The economic viability of irrigated schemes is dependent on three factors: crop yield, water management and cropped area. The research question of this study was whether or not the current status of these factors can be sustained in order to maintain the economic viability of irrigation systems? To answer this question, a new (to the best of the author’s knowledge) approach was developed based on time series analysis, and on the Theil–Sen estimator of slope. The study defined sustainability conceptually as “the ability of an irrigation system to sustain crop yields using the optimum cropped area and water consumption to realize the economic viability of the irrigation system without a decline in soil quality and environment”. Time series datasets of crop yields, cropped area and irrigation water consumption are collected routinely by statistical departments. Any abrupt years in the development of trends were detected and related to their driving forces/causes, of which climatic conditions and marketing policies were found to be the most important. The simple approach developed proved its suitability for quantifying the progress of irrigated schemes’ towards sustainability development as tested under the conditions of Gezira irrigated scheme in Sudan—the largest singly managed irrigation scheme in the world. The scheme was found to be sustainable under the condition that the crop yield is considered as the top priority; otherwise, the sustainability of the scheme is jeopardized.