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Estimation and projection about the standardized prevalence of osteoporosis in mainland China

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Abstract

Summary

We performed a systematic analysis of the standardized prevalence of osteoporosis in mainland China from 1990 to 2050.

Introduction

Osteoporosis is the most common bone disease. We aimed to investigate the standardized prevalence of osteoporosis in mainland China at the national and regional levels, with projections until 2050.

Methods

A comprehensive literature search was performed in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, and CBM-SinoMed. We constructed resample sets to calculate the standardized prevalence in each study. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was used to estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence. The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) data and regional population data from the fifth and sixth censuses in mainland China were used to estimate and project the national and regional prevalence of osteoporosis.

Results

The standardized prevalence of osteoporosis ranged from 5.04% (2.12~11.34%) to 7.46% (3.13~16.32%) in males aged ≥ 50 years and from 26.28% (15.38~40.40%) to 39.19% (25.74~53.95%) in females aged ≥ 50 years from 1990 to 2050. Moreover, we did not find a significant difference in the standardized prevalence among three geographic regions (Central China, West China, and East China).

Conclusion

We found that osteoporosis is a serious public health challenge in mainland China. The findings in our study add insight into the epidemiology of osteoporosis and would be beneficial for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis in mainland China.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Professor Yueqin Huang in Peking University Sixth Hospital for her advice in preparation of this manuscript. The authors also thank the DSC (Wuhan) Scientific Co.Ltd. for consulting services on data management, statistical analysis, and scientific writing.

Funding

This work was supported by grants from Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (Z181100001718195).

Author information

Author notes

  1. Zhiyong Cui, Xiangyu Meng, and Hui Feng contributed equally to this work

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Peking University Third Hospital, No 49 Huayuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China

    Zhiyong Cui, Hui Feng, Tengjiao Zhu, Kaifeng Ye, Yong Xing, Chuan Sun, Fang Zhou & Yun Tian

  2. Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China

    Zhiyong Cui, Kaifeng Ye, Yong Xing & Chuan Sun

  3. Department of Urology, Wuhan University Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China

    Xiangyu Meng

  4. Wuhan University School of Medicine, Wuhan, Hubei, China

    Siying Zhuang

  5. Peking University Sixth Hospital, Beijing, China

    Zhaorui Liu

  6. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Peking University International Hospital, Beijing, China

    Tengjiao Zhu

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  1. Zhiyong Cui
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Fig. S1

Comparison of estimated age-specific standardized prevalence of osteoporosis between males and females, with 95% confidence intervals (PNG 22 kb)

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Fig. S2

Estimated and projected sex-specific standardized prevalence of osteoporosis in people aged ≥ 50 years old from 1990 to 2050 (PNG 12 kb)

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Cui, Z., Meng, X., Feng, H. et al. Estimation and projection about the standardized prevalence of osteoporosis in mainland China. Arch Osteoporos 15, 2 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11657-019-0670-6

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