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Evolution of extreme rainfall events over Indo-Gangetic plain in changing climate during 1901–2010

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Abstract

Due to climate variability and climate change there is an increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. During the last few decades these extreme rainfall events have been increased in global as well as on regional scale. Our climate is very much affected by the changes in frequency of extreme rainfall events. Particularly, variability of extreme rainfall events has been studied over one of the most valuable Indian region i.e. over Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP). Long term trend in extreme events has been analyzed with the help of IMD classification. The classification is considered for moderate rain (2.5–64.4 mm; category I), heavy rain (64.5–124.4 mm; category II) and very heavy rain (124.5 mm or more; category III) and the categorization of rainfall events is based on daily rainfall for the period 1901–2010 during Indian summer monsoon (JJAS). The significant long term trend in frequency of extreme rainfall events is analyzed using the statistical test. Long term trend analysis shows the significant decreasing trend for categories II and III. However, an increasing rainfall frequency is observed for moderate rainfall events (category I) during the considered period. A significant interannual and inter-decadal fluctuation in rainfall frequency and magnitude were observed over IGP. Events of moderate and heavy rainfall increases during the withdrawal period of Indian summer monsoon, which might contribute in several cases of flood in the region of IGP. In term of distribution and contribution of rainfall in agriculture area categories I and II, rainfall events are more important but changes in rainfall pattern may lead to flood and drought risk over IGP. The policy making decision for disaster risk and food security should be based on spatial as well as temporal variability of rainfall pattern over IGP region.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to express sincere thanks to India Meteorological Department for providing the necessary data. One of the authors (AT) acknowledges with thanks the financial assistance in the form of a fellowship provided by the University Grants Commission for research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005, India

    R Bhatla & Shruti Verma

  2. Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay, Mumbai, 400 076, India

    Ritu Pandey

  3. Centre for Ocean Atmospheric Sciences and Technology, Amity University, Jaipur, 303 002, India

    A Tripathi

  4. DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005, India

    R Bhatla & Shruti Verma

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  1. R Bhatla
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  2. Shruti Verma
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Correspondence to R Bhatla.

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Corresponding Editor: Kavirajan Rajendran

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Bhatla, R., Verma, S., Pandey, R. et al. Evolution of extreme rainfall events over Indo-Gangetic plain in changing climate during 1901–2010. J Earth Syst Sci 128, 120 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1162-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1162-1

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