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Performance of a very high-resolution global forecast system model (GFS T1534) at 12.5 km over the Indian region during the 2016–2017 monsoon seasons

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Abstract

A global forecast system model at a horizontal resolution of T1534 (\({\sim }12.5\, \hbox {km}\)) has been evaluated for the monsoon seasons of 2016 and 2017 over the Indian region. It is for the first time that such a high-resolution global model is being run operationally for monsoon weather forecast. A detailed validation of the model therefore is essential. The validation of mean monsoon rainfall for the season and individual months indicates a tendency for wet bias over the land region in all the forecast lead time. The probability distribution of forecast rainfall shows an overestimation (underestimation) of rainfall for the lighter (heavy) categories. However, the probability distribution functions of moderate rainfall categories are found to be reasonable. The model shows fidelity in capturing the extremely heavy rainfall categories with shorter lead times. The model reasonably predicts the large-scale parameters associated with the Indian summer monsoon, particularly, the vertical profile of the moisture. The diurnal rainfall variability forecasts in all lead times show certain biases over different land and oceanic regions and, particularly, over the north–west Indian region. Although the model has a reasonable fidelity in capturing the spatio-temporal variability of the monsoon rain, further development is needed to enhance the skill of forecast of a higher rain rate with a longer lead time.

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Acknowledgements

IITM is an autonomous research institution, fully supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India, New Delhi. The authors are grateful for the comments from the anonymous reviewers and the editor which contributed to the improvement and the clarity of the paper. The GFS model is run on the ‘Aaditya’ MoES high power computing system located at IITM, Pune. The authors thank IMD for TRMM and the Rain gauge merged daily rainfall data. RPMK gratefully acknowledges Dr S Moorthi, National Center for Environmental Prediction, USA for the help in understanding the semi-Lagrangian framework. The authors from IITM, Pune are grateful to the director, IITM for the encouragement and the support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, 411 008, India

    P Mukhopadhyay, R Phani Murali Krishna, Medha Deshpande, Malay Ganai, Snehlata Tirkey, Sahadat Sarkar, Tanmoy Goswami, Kumar Roy & M Mahakur

  2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India

    V S Prasad & C J Johny

  3. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110 003, India

    V R Durai

  4. Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India, Prithvi Bhavan, New Delhi, 110 003, India

    M Rajeevan

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  1. P Mukhopadhyay
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  2. V S Prasad
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  3. R Phani Murali Krishna
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  4. Medha Deshpande
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  5. Malay Ganai
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  6. Snehlata Tirkey
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  8. Tanmoy Goswami
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  9. C J Johny
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  10. Kumar Roy
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  11. M Mahakur
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Correspondence to P Mukhopadhyay.

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Corresponding Editor: A K Sahai

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Mukhopadhyay, P., Prasad, V.S., Krishna, R.P.M. et al. Performance of a very high-resolution global forecast system model (GFS T1534) at 12.5 km over the Indian region during the 2016–2017 monsoon seasons. J Earth Syst Sci 128, 155 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1186-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1186-6

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