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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of north and central Himalayas using region-specific ground motion prediction equations

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Abstract

A comprehensive deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA) of the north and central Himalayas (NCH) is attempted in the current study using recently developed strong-motion data-based region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Two source models, linear and point sources are used for hazard assessment. An updated seismotectonic map of the NCH is developed by identifying and merging the seismic sources from the Seismotectonic Atlas (SEISAT 2000) developed by the Geological Survey of India and recent literature, and a homogenized, declustered up-to-date earthquake catalogue with events since 250 BC. The NCH is divided into grids of size approximately 5 km × 5 km, and the bedrock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the center of each grid point is estimated using a region-specific GMPE considering both source models. The PGA values estimated at these points are exported to a GIS platform to develop a seismic hazard map of the region, separately for different sources, average and maximum of both the sources. It is observed from the current study that the PGA estimated is apparently greater than what is recommended in the codal provisions for seismic zonation and estimation of design horizontal acceleration for the NCH.

Research highlights

  • SHA based on the state of the art DSHA technique has been carried out using various source models and recently developed region-specific GMPEs with an updated homogenized and declustered catalogue.

  • Deterministic Seismic Hazard contour maps have been developed representing the bedrock level horizontal acceleration developed using linear and point sources.

  • The newly developed hazard maps for the North and Central Himalayas shows higher PGA in the range of 0.4g to 0.7g towards the plate boundary region and a decreasing trend towards the peninsular shield region and the southern alluvial plains, except at the National Capital Region.

  • The PGA estimated are comparatively higher than the design horizontal acceleration prescribed for these regions in BIS 1893.

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Acknowledgement

The authors would like to sincerely thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers who helped in improving the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Amrita School of Engineering, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Coimbatore, India

    R Ramkrishnan

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka (NITK), Surathkal, Karnataka, India

    Sreevalsa Kolathayar

  3. Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati, Assam, 781 039, India

    T G Sitharam

  4. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India

    T G Sitharam

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R Ramkrishnan carried out the data collection, analysis and draft manuscript preparation. K Sreevalsa and T G Sitharam envisioned and guided the work, contributed to the methodology and interpretation of the results.

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Correspondence to R Ramkrishnan.

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Ramkrishnan, R., Kolathayar, S. & Sitharam, T.G. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of north and central Himalayas using region-specific ground motion prediction equations. J Earth Syst Sci 130, 232 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01728-6

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