Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Explaining Japan's Fragile Premierships in the Post-Koizumi Era

  • Published:
East Asia Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

After Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's highly successful rule, Japan saw the five short-lived premierships – Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, Taro Aso, Yukio Hatoyama, and Naoto Kan – over the period of five years (2006-11). This article aims to identify the causes of this unusually high frequency of Japan's leadership changes in recent times. Specifically, it finds that all post-Koizumi prime ministers lost power after a short tenure by following the same pattern of demise that was characterized by a rapid fall of approval rate in the media's polls. It argues that they fell into this pattern of failure for the same three reasons: their failure in economic policy; their poor leadership ability derived from the vanishing of the traditional career path to premiership; their unstable intraparty foothold caused by the transition from candidate-centered election to party-centered election. It argues that the politics under the Koizumi and post-Koizumi cabinets share important undercurrents despite their apparent differences.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Similar frequent changes of prime ministers can be found in only two other periods of Japan's modern history; the period of 1936 to 1940, which saw seven prime ministers, and that of 1944 to 48, which also saw seven prime ministers.

  2. Only one reelection is possible. For the DPJ, its presidency had a fixed term of two years until 2011, but the party convention decided to extend it to three years in January 2012. There is no restriction on reelections.

  3. Hatoyama served as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary in the Hosokawa cabinet for eight months and Kan served as Minster of Health and Welfare in the first Hashimoto cabinet for ten months.

  4. The author would like to thank an anonymous reviewer for suggesting this idea.

  5. The Italian party system is more fragmented than the Japanese one, but its election is now fought between the center-right and center-left electoral coalitions.

  6. In the Koizumi government, Abe served successively as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, LDP's Secretary-general, LDP's Deputy Secretary-general, and Chief Cabinet Secretary.

  7. The other two candidates were Taro Aso and Sadakazu Tanigaki.

  8. Abe used the slogan of "Beautiful Country" (Utsukushii Kuni) to explain his policy vision. As part of his campaign for the LDP presidency, he published a book that used this slogan as the title [1].

  9. Later, he claimed that he had resigned because of his health problem, not the political impasse.

  10. His first election to the Diet was in 1990, so the length of his political career was 17 years, which is still seen as relatively brief according to Japanese standards. Before the Koizumi cabinet, he had only one short ministerial appointment; he served as Chief Cabinet Secretary in the preceding Mori cabinet for five months.

  11. Young reformers decided to support Fukuda also because Koizumi endorsed his candidacy [45, pp.161-2].

  12. Fiscal hawks entertained a pessimistic assessment of Japan's growth potential and claimed that the first priority in economic policymaking should be fiscal reconstruction rather than recovery of economic growth. This prioritization was opposed by neoliberals, who were often called the "rising tide faction" (age shio ha). Fiscal hawks became visible in the last year of the Koizumi cabinet and confrontation between fiscal hawks and neoliberals became an important aspect of the LDP's debates on economic policy under the Fukuda cabinet [36, pp.304-30].

  13. In 1979, Aso entered the political world as a lower house member. In the Koizumi government, he served as Chairman of the Policy Research Council, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

  14. Kaoru Yosano, Yuriko Koike, Nobuteru Ishihara, and Shigeru Ishiba also ran in this presidential election.

  15. In the party presidential election on May 16, 2009, Hatoyama beat Katsuya Okada by getting 124 out of the total 200 ballots [47, 17 May 2009].

  16. One more candidate, Shinji Tarutoko, ran in this election.

References

(Books, Articles, and Government Documents)

  1. Abe, S. (2006). Utsukushii Kuni he [For a beautiful country]. Tokyo: Bugei Shunju.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Akarui Senkyo Suishin Kyokai. (2010). Dai45kai Shugiin Senkyo no Jittai. http://www.akaruisenkyo.or.jp/066search. Accessed January 21 2011.

  3. Calder, K. E. (1988). Crisis and Compensation: Public Policy and Political Stability in Japan, 1949-86. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Campus, D. & Pasquino, G. (2006). Leadership in Italy: The Changing Role of Leaders in Elections and in Government. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 14(1), 25-40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Cotta, M. & Verzichelli L. (2007). Political Institutions in Italy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Curtis, G. L. (1971). Election Campaigning Japanese Style. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Curtis, G. L. (1999). The Logic of Japanese Politics: Leaders, Institutions, and the Limits of Change. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Hara, E. (2010). Kanryo no Retorikku [Bureaucrats' rhetoric]. Tokyo: Shinchosha.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Hasegawa, Y. (2010). Kantei Haiboku [Defeat of the Prime Minister's residence]. Tokyo: Kodansha.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Hayao, K. (1993). The Japanese Prime Minister and Public Policy. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Inoguchi, T. & Jain, P. (2011). Introduction. In Inoguchi, T. & Jain, P. (Eds.), Japanese Politics Today: From Karaoke to Kabuki Democracy (pp. 1-9). New York: Palgrave.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Jain, P. (2010). Kan Naoto: Symbol of a New Politics in Japan? Japanese Studies, 30(2), 283-294.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Johnson, C. (1982). MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925-1975. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Kakizaki, M. (2008). Tsugi no Shusho ha Koushite Kimaru [The next prime minister is chosen this way]. Tokyo: Kodansha.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Katz, R. (1998). Japan the System that Soured: the Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle. Armonk, New York: M. E. Sharpe.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Keane, J. (2009). The Life and Death of Democracy. New York: W. W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Krauss, E. S. & Pekkanen, R. J. (2011). The Rise and Fall of Japan’s LDP: Political Party Organizations as Historical Institutions. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Lincoln, E. J. (2001). Arthritic Japan: the Slow Pace of Economic Reform. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Machidori, S. (2006). Tsuyoi Shusho ha Nichijo tonaru [Strong prime minister becomes normal]. Chuo Koron, October Issue, 174-184.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Matsumoto, M. (2001). Seiji Ishiki Zusetsu [Illustrative explanation of political consciousness]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Matsumoto, M. (2006) Mutoha Jidai no Shuen [The end of the non-affiliated voters’ age]. Senkyo Kenkyu, 21, 39-50

    Google Scholar 

  22. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. (2012). Rodoryoku Chosa [Labor force survey]. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/longtime/03roudou.htm. Accessed January 20 2012.

  23. Mishima, K. (2007). The Ordeal of Japan’s New-generation Leader: An Assessment of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Harvard Asia Pacific Review, 9(1), 32-34.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Mishima, K. (2007). Grading Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi's Revolution: How Far Has the LDP's Policymaking Changed? Asian Survey, 47(5), 727-748.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Nagatsuma, A. (2011). Manekazaru Daijin [Uninvited minister]. Tokyo: Asahi Shimbun.

    Google Scholar 

  26. O’Malley, E. & Cavatorta, F. (2004). Finding a Party and Losing Some Friends: Overcoming the Weakness of the Prime Ministerial Figure in Italy. Contemporary Politics, 10(3/4), 271-286.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2006). OECD Economic Surveys: Japan. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Otake, H. (2003). Nihongata Popyurizumu [Japanese-style populism]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Otake, H. (2006). Koizumi Junichiro Popyurizumu no Kenkyu [Study of Junichiro Koizumi's populism]. Tokyo: Toyo Keizai Shinpo.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Park, C. H. (2001). Factional Dynamics in Japan’s LDP since Political Reform: Continuity and Change. Asian Survey, 41(3), 428-461.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Pasquino, G. (2007). The Five Faces of Silvio Berlusconi: The Knight of Anti-politics. Modern Italy, 12(1), 39-54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Ramseyer, J. M. & Rosenbluth, F. M. (1993). Japan’s Political Marketplace. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Samuels, R. J. (2003). Machiavelli’s Children: Leaders and Their Legacies in Italy and Japan. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  34. Sato, S. & Matsuzaki, T. (1986). Jiminto Seiken [LDP government]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Schlesinger, J. M. (1997). Shadow Shoguns: the Rise and Fall of Japan's Postwar Political Machine. New York: Simon & Schuster.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Shimizu, M. (2009). Shusho no Satetsu [Prime minister's failure]. Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shimbun.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Sugawara, T. (2009). Yoron no Kyokkai [Misinterpretation of public opinions]. Tokyo: Kobunsha.

    Google Scholar 

  38. Takayasu, K. (2010). Naze Nihon no Shusho ha Suguni Kotaisurunoka [Why do the Japanese prime ministers change often?]. Sekai, 810, 103-112.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Takenaka, H. (2006). Shusho Shihai [Prime minister’s supremacy]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron.

    Google Scholar 

  40. Tarrow, S. (1990). Maintaining Hegemony in Italy: “The Softer They Rise, the Slower They Fall!” In Pempel, T. J. (ed.), Uncommon Democracies: The One-party Dominant Regimes (pp. 306-332). Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  41. Thayer, N. B. (1969). How the Conservatives Rule Japan. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  42. Uesugi, T. (2007). Kantei Hokai [Breakdown of the prime minister's residence]. Tokyo: Shinchosha.

    Google Scholar 

  43. Woodall, B. (1996). Japan under Construction: Corruption, Politics, and Public Works. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  44. Yomiuri Shimbun Minshuizumu Shuzaihan. (2011). Haishin Seiken [Faithless government]. Tokyo: Chuo Koron.

    Google Scholar 

  45. Yomiuri Shimbun Seijibu. (2008). Shinku Kokkai [Vacuum Diet]. Tokyo: Shinchosa.

    Google Scholar 

  46. Yomiuri Shimbun Seijibu. (2011). Bokoku no Saisho [Anti-nation prime minister]. Tokyo: Shinchosha.

    Google Scholar 

References (Newspapers)

  1. Asahi Shimbun

  2. New York Times

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. East Stroudsburg University of Pennsylvania, 200 Prospect Street, East Stroudsburg, PA, 18301, USA

    Ko Mishima

Authors
  1. Ko Mishima
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ko Mishima.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mishima, K. Explaining Japan's Fragile Premierships in the Post-Koizumi Era. East Asia 29, 275–293 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-012-9179-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-012-9179-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation