Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Spatial-temporal trend analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall (1966–2015) using innovative trend analysis method with significance test

  • Technical Note
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of trends on seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) and annual rainfall time series data (1966–2015) at 13 stations located in the central Himalayan region of the Uttarakhand State of India. The temporal trend was analyzed using recently proposed innovative trend analysis (ITA) method with significance test. The results of the ITA method were compared with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test at 5% significance level. The spatial variation of the trends in seasonal and annual rainfall series was interpolated using the Thiessen polygon (TP) method in ArcGIS 10.2 environment. The results of comparison revealed that the trend detected by MK test (significantly positive in 3-time series and significantly negative in 6-time series) can be effectively identified using ITA (significantly positive in 19-time series and significantly negative in 32-time series). The ITA method could detect some trends that cannot be observed by the MK test. According to the spatial distribution of MK test, significantly increasing (decreasing) trends were observed in 1 (0), 1 (2), 0 (1), 1 (1), and 1 (1) polygons in pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter, and annual rainfall data, while the ITA method detected significant trends in 3 (7), 6 (5), 1 (9), 4 (5), and 5 (6) polygons in the study region. The developed maps of spatial variability of rainfall trends may help the stakeholders and/or water resource managers to figure out the risk and vulnerability related to climate change in the study region.

Graphical abstract

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

References

  • Amirataee B, Montaseri M, Sanikhani H (2016) The analysis of trend variations of reference evapotranspiration via eliminating the significance effect of all autocorrelation coefficient. Theor Appl Climatol 126:131–139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ay M, Kisi O (2015) Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theor Appl Climatol 120:617–629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balasmeh OA, Babbar R, Karmaker T (2019) Trend analysis and ARIMA modeling for forecasting precipitation pattern in Wadi Shueib catchment area in Jordan. Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4205-z

  • Basistha A, Arya DS, Goel NK (2008) Spatial distribution of rainfall in Indian Himalayas—a case study of Uttarakhand region. Water Resour Manag 22:1325–1346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellu A, Sanches Fernandes LF, Cortes RMV, Pacheco FAL (2016) A framework model for the dimensioning and allocation of a detention basin system: the case of a flood-prone mountainous watershed. J Hydrol 533:567–580

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birara H, Pandey RP, Mishra SK (2018) Trend and variability analysis of rainfall and temperature in the Tana basin region, Ethiopia. J Water Clim Chang. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.080

  • Bisht DS, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS, Sridhar V (2018) Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins. Theor Appl Climatol 132:419–436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Gullà G, Nanni T, Simolo C (2012) Precipitation variability and change in the Calabria region (Italy) from a high resolution daily dataset. Int J Climatol 32:55–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunsell NA, Jones AR, Jackson TL, Feddema JJ (2010) Seasonal trends in air temperature and precipitation in IPCC AR4 GCM output for Kansas, USA: evaluation and implications. Int J Climatol 30(8):1178–1193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2017) Analysis of rainfall trend in southern Italy through the application of the ITA technique. European Water 59:199–206

    Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2018) Application of the innovative trend analysis method for the trend analysis of rainfall anomalies in southern Italy. Water Resour Manag 32:4971–4983

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chakraborty S, Pandey RP, Chaube UC, Mishra SK (2013) Trend and variability analysis of rainfall series at Seonath River basin, Chhattisgarh (India). Int J Appl Sci Eng Res 2(4):425–434

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang X, Xu Z, Zhao G, Cheng T, Song S (2017) Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation during 1979–2015 in Jinan City, China. J Water Clim. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.029

  • Cui L, Wang L, Lai Z, Tian Q, Liu W, Li J (2017) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, China during 1960-2015. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys 164:48–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dabanli I, Şen Z, Yeleğen MÖ, Şişman E, Selek B, Güçlü YS (2016) Trend assessment by the innovative Şen method. Water Resour Manag 30(14):5193–5203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dhorde AG, Korade MS, Dhorde AA (2017) Spatial distribution of temperature trends and extremes over Maharashtra and Karnataka states of India. Theor Appl Climatol 130:191–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Singh VP, Biazar SM, Kavehka S (2019) Impact of climate change on streamflow timing (case study: Guilan Province). Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02810-2

  • Gajbhiye S, Meshram C, Mirabbasi R, Sharma SK (2015) Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India. Theor Appl Climatol 125:593–608

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Güçlü YS (2018) Multiple Sen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. J Hydrol 566:685–704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Güçlü YS, Dabanli I, Şişman E, Şen Z (2018) Air quality (AQ) identification by innovative trend diagram and AQ index combinations in Istanbul megacity. Atmos Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2018.06.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hadi SJ, Tombul M (2018) Comparison of spatial interpolation methods of precipitation and temperature using multiple integration periods. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 46(7):1187–1199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Kabanda T (2018) Long-term rainfall trends over the Tanzania coast. Atm. 9(155):1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods., 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London, p 6

    Google Scholar 

  • Khatiwada KR, Panthi J, Shrestha ML, Nepal S (2016) Hydro-climatic variability in the Karnali River basin of Nepal Himalaya. Climate 4(17):1–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Kisi O (2015) An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations. J Hydrol 527:1123–1129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kisi O, Ay M (2014) Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. J Hydrol 513:362–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kisi O, Santos CAG, Silva RMD, Zounemat-Kermani M (2018) Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen’s innovative trend method. Geofizika 35(1):53–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar V, Jain SK (2010) Rainfall trend in Ganga-Brahmputra-Meghna River basins of India (1951-2004). Hydrol J 33:59–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar S, Machiwal D, Dayal D (2017) Spatial modelling of rainfall trends using satellite datasets and geographic information system. Hydrol Sci J 62(10):1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machiwal D, Jha MK (2017) Evaluating persistence and identifying trends and abrupt changes in monthly and annual rainfalls of a semi-arid region in Western India. Theor Appl Climatol 128:689–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machiwal D, Gupta A, Jha MK, Kamble T (2018) Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2487-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meshram SG, Singh VP, Meshram C (2017) Long-term trend and variability of precipitation in Chhattisgarh State, India. Theor Appl Climatol 129:729–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohorji AM, Şen Z, Almazroui M (2017) Trend analyses revision and global monthly temperature innovative multi-duration analysis. Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-017-0014-x

  • Ouatiki H, Boudhar A, Ouhinou A, Arioua A, Hssaisoune M, Bouamri H, Benabdelouahab T (2019) Trend analysis of rainfall and drought over the Oum Er-Rbia River basin in Morocco during 1970–2010. Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4300-9

  • Phuong DND, Linh VT, Nhat TT, Dung HM, Loi NK (2018) Spatiotemporal variability of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. J Water and Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.115

  • Pingale SM, Khare D, Jat MK, Adamowski J (2014) Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. Atm Res 138:73–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray LK, Goel NK, Arora M (2019) Trend analysis and change point detection of temperature over parts of India. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02819-7

  • Şen Z (2012) An innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17(9):1042–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2014) Trend identification simulation and application. J Hydrol Eng 19(3):635–642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2017) Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theor Appl Climatol 127:939–947

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2018) Crossing trend analysis methodology and application for Turkish rainfall records. Theor Appl Climatol 131:285–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Some’e BS, Ezani A, Tabari H (2012) Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran. Atmos Res 113:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sonali P, Kumar DN (2016) Spatio-temporal variability of temperature and potential evapotranspiration over India. J Water Clim Chang 7(4):810–822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suryavanshi S, Pandey A, Chaube UC, Joshi N (2014) Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India. Theor Appl Climatol 117:403–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Some’e BS, Zadeh MR (2011) Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos Res 100:132–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terêncio DPS, Sanches Fernandes LF, Cortes RMV, Pacheco FAL (2017) Improved framework model to allocate optimal rainwater harvesting sites in small watersheds for agro-forestry uses. J Hydrol 550:318–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terêncio DPS, Sanches Fernandes LF, Cortes RMV, Moura JP, Pacheco FAL (2018) Rainwater harvesting in catchments for agro-forestry uses: a study focused on the balance between sustainability values and storage capacity. Sci Total Environ 613-614:1079–1092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thiessen AH (1911) Precipitation averages for large areas. Mon Weather Rev 39(7):1082–1089

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang SJ, Jiao ST, Xin HJ (2013) Spatio-temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Sichuan Province, southwestern China, 1960-2009. Quat Int 286:103–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu H, Qian H (2017) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s. Int J Climatol 37:2582–2592

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu H, Li X, Qian H (2018) Detection of anomalies and changes of rainfall in the Yellow River basin, China, through two graphical methods. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu CY, Zhang Z, Chen YD, Liu CL (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960-2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation. J Hydrol 353(3):215227

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Z, Wang L, Lin A, Zhang M, Niu Z (2018) Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during 1962–2015. Renew Energy 119:675–689

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of Technology, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand, 263145, India

    Anurag Malik & Anil Kumar

  2. India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, 411005, India

    Pulak Guhathakurta

  3. Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering, Ilia State University, 0162, Tbilisi, Georgia

    Ozgur Kisi

Authors
  1. Anurag Malik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Anil Kumar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Pulak Guhathakurta
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ozgur Kisi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ozgur Kisi.

Additional information

Editorial handling: Fernando Al Pacheco

Highlights

• Spatial and temporal patterns of trends on seasonal and annual rainfall time series data (1966–2015) at 13 stations located in the central Himalayan region of Uttarakhand State of India is investigated.

• The temporal trend is analyzed using a recently proposed innovative trend analysis (ITA) method with significance test.

• The results of the ITA method are compared with the Mann-Kendall (MK) method.

• The results of comparison reveal that the trend detected by the MK test (significantly positive in 3-time series and significantly negative in 6-time series) can be effectively identified using ITA (significantly positive in 19-time series and significantly negative in 32-time series).

• The ITA method could detect some trends that cannot be observed by the MK method.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Malik, A., Kumar, A., Guhathakurta, P. et al. Spatial-temporal trend analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall (1966–2015) using innovative trend analysis method with significance test. Arab J Geosci 12, 328 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4454-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4454-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation