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The influences of spatiotemporal change of cultivated land on food crop production potential in China

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Abstract

The impact of changes in cultivated land on the production potential of food crops in China during the period of 1990–2010 was studied using land use data and the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model. The contribution of crop production potential per unit cultivated land area (PPCLA) to the total food-energy based production potential (TPP) of food crops was further investigated. From 1990 to 2010, China has experienced a net increase of cultivated land, resulting from a net increase in northern China and a smaller net decrease in the south. However, the TPP reduced by 9.64 × 1012 kcal despite an overall cultivated land increase for crops. This was attributed to the spatial heterogeneity of PPCLA in the cultivated land, whereby the average PPCLA of the newly cultivated land was much lower than that of the lost land. The PPCLA gap between the newly developed land and the lost cultivated land expanded from 3.16 × 106 kcal/ha in the first decade (1990–2000) to 6.49 × 106 kcal/ha in 2000–2010. Contributions of PPCLA to TPP varied among regions, and the regions with the largest contributions were consistent with those with the largest PPCLA gaps. Such regions included the Sichuan Basin and surrounding region in 1990–2000, and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000–2010. Based on these research findings, key implications for land use policies in relation to major food crops in China are discussed.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported and funded by the National Key Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs (No.2013BAC03B01), Key Deployment Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KJZD-EW-TZ-G10) and Cultivate Project of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science (No. TSYJS03). We particularly appreciate the help of Günther Fisher from IIASA for his GAEZ model. He also made substantial contributions to the estimations of production potentials for China. We would like to thank the Editors of Food Security and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and constructive suggestions on this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xinliang Xu, Liang Wang & Hongyan Cai

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Liang Wang

  3. Key Laboratory of Analysis and Simulation of Geological Processes of Hubei Province, The College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, China

    Luyao Wang & Hongzhi Wang

  4. Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, 510642, China

    Luo Liu

  5. College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, 510642, China

    Luo Liu

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  1. Xinliang Xu
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  3. Hongyan Cai
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  4. Luyao Wang
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Correspondence to Hongyan Cai.

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Xu, X., Wang, L., Cai, H. et al. The influences of spatiotemporal change of cultivated land on food crop production potential in China. Food Sec. 9, 485–495 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0683-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0683-1

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