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The new “Silk Road Economic Belt” as a threat to the sustainable management of Central Asia’s transboundary water resources

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Abstract

Central Asia is well known for its history of water mismanagement. The rapid, catastrophic demise of the Aral Sea is testament to the unsustainable water diversion practices introduced by the Soviet Union in the 1960s and the failure of the five sovereign nations, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, that inherited responsibility for Central Asia’s ailing resources, to develop the types of program necessary for the sustainable management of what had become a shared “transboundary” water resource. Although nearly 25 years have passed since the break-up of the Soviet Union, rivalry and deep mistrust between the guardian nations of Central Asia’s water resources remains a serious impediment to achieving the level of cooperation necessary for constructive, water management and decision-making. This is a grave concern given the anticipated impacts of climate change and natural population growth on water in the region. For many Asians, the recently proposed new “Silk Road Economic Belt” is viewed as an immense opportunity to bring wealth and prosperity to some of the poorest regions of China and Central Asia. However, given Central Asia’s appalling record of water management, there is little confidence that the project’s water needs can be adequately met. In effect, the new “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the rapid growth it will bring to the region, represents a serious long-term threat to the sustainable management of Central Asia’s transboundary water resources. The fundamental concern is that the project may place too great a burden on a water management system in Central Asia that is seriously dysfunctional and shows no sign of improvement. Central Asian countries need to recognise that the economic success of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” hinges on their ability to develop programs that can ensure the region’s water resources are managed in a sound and sustainable manner. This will be a difficult challenge and will require cooperation amongst the countries of Central Asia that goes far beyond what currently seems possible. Major reforms are necessary and external pressures from neighbouring Russia and China are likely required to make this happen. It is also essential that the project be supported by sound science and good hydrological data, both of which are seriously lacking in the region. There will be a need to invest in scientific research in the relevant fields. With judicious planning, good science and a commitment amongst the nations of Central Asia to create a shared vision and collaborate towards a common goal, the “New Silk Road” can be developed both beneficially and sustainably.

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Fig. 1

(modified after Howard and Griffith 2008)

Fig. 2

(http://www.britannica.com/place/Central-Asia)

Fig. 3

(modified after McCray 1998)

Fig. 4

(from Morris et al. 2002, 2005)

Fig. 5

(modified after Hecht 2014)

Fig. 6

(modified after Stratfor Global Intelligence 2013)

Fig. 7

(http://www.orgs.miamioh.edu/silkroad/maps/maps.html)

Fig. 8

(modified after: http://www.kiongroup.com/en/main/media_site/ms_markets/markets_detail_8320.jsp)

Fig. 9

(modified after: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition)

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments of Bob Scott on an earlier draft of this manuscript. Suggestions from two anonymous reviewers are also greatly appreciated. Funding support was provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Groundwater Research Group, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, M1C 1A4, Canada

    Ken W. F. Howard & Karina K. Howard

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  1. Ken W. F. Howard
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  2. Karina K. Howard
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Correspondence to Ken W. F. Howard.

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This article is a part of a Topical Collection in Environmental Earth Sciences on “Advances of Research in Soil, Water, Environment, and Geologic Hazards Along the Silk Road” guest edited by Drs. Peiyue Li, Hui Qian and Wanfang Zhou.

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Howard, K.W.F., Howard, K.K. The new “Silk Road Economic Belt” as a threat to the sustainable management of Central Asia’s transboundary water resources. Environ Earth Sci 75, 976 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5752-9

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