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Modeled Sediment Availability, Deposition, and Decadal Land Change in Coastal Louisiana Marshes under Future Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios

  • Wetlands and Climate Change
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Abstract

The ability, or lack thereof, for wetlands in coastal Louisiana to maintain elevation capital has been well documented in the literature to be a function of local and regional factors as well as environmental conditions. The Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) framework developed for the state of Louisiana’s Coastal Master Plan models hydrologic, vegetation, and wetland elevation dynamics and captures regional and local dynamics of wetland elevation, inundation and sedimentation processes. It provides insights into the relative sensitivities of wetland evolution to environmental drivers under uncertain future environmental conditions. A systematic, and computationally efficient modeling exercise was conducted to test coastal marsh survival across a wide range of possible future relative sea level rise rate scenarios. Model results indicate a diverse response with respect to sediment deposition and marsh survival driven by regional subsidence rates and proximity to suspended sediment sources. Sediment poor regions of coastal Louisiana are particularly sensitive to relative sea level rise under all but the most optimistic of future sea level rise rates simulated. Coastal marshes with high sediment availability fare much better under most scenarios tested, despite high rates of relative sea level rise.

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Acknowledgements

The modeling exercise discussed in this work was funded by the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. The authors are indebted to the many researchers and engineers who participated in the model development and validation exercises conducted for the 2017 Coastal Master Plan; in particular the other lead model developers of the ICM-Hydro, ICM-Morph, and ICM-LAVegMod subroutines discussed in this analysis: Alex McCorquodale, Brady Couvillion, Jenneke Visser and Scott Duke-Sylvester.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana Research & Planning Division, 1110 River Road S. Ste 200, Baton Rouge, LA, 70802, USA

    Eric D. White

  2. University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA

    Denise J. Reed

  3. River-Coastal Science and Engineering Department, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA

    Ehab A. Meselhe

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  1. Eric D. White
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  2. Denise J. Reed
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Correspondence to Eric D. White.

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White, E.D., Reed, D.J. & Meselhe, E.A. Modeled Sediment Availability, Deposition, and Decadal Land Change in Coastal Louisiana Marshes under Future Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios. Wetlands 39, 1233–1248 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-019-01151-0

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