Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Bayesian Network-Based Framework for Cost-Implication Assessment of Road Traffic Collisions

  • Published:
International Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Investigating the cost-implications of road traffic collision factors is an important endeavour that has a direct impact on the economy, transport policies, cities and nations around the world. A Bayesian network framework model was developed using real-life road traffic collision data and expert knowledge to assess the cost of road traffic collisions. Findings of this study suggest that the framework is a promising approach for assessing the cost-implications associated with road traffic collisions. Moreover, adopting this framework with other computational intelligence approaches would have a positive impact towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in terms of road safety.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Kourouma, K., Delamou, A., Lamah, L., Camara, B.S., Kolie, D., Sidibé, S., Béavogui, A.H., Owiti, P., Manzi, M., Ade, S., Harries, A.D.: Frequency, characteristics and hospital outcomes of road traffic accidents and their victims in Guinea: a three-year retrospective study from 2015 to 2017. BMC Public Health. 19(1), 1022 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. World Health Organization: Global status report on road safety 2018: Summary (No. WHO/NMH/NVI/18.20). World Health Organization (2018). http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/277370/WHO-NMH-NVI-18.20-eng.pdf

  3. Ackloweg, Y., Hayshi, Y., Kato, H.: The effect of used cars on African road traffic accidents: a case study of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Int. J. Urban Sci. 15(1), 61–69 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Lagarde, E.: Road traffic injury is an escalating burden in Africa and deserves proportionate research efforts. PLoS Med. 4(6), 170 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Parkinson, F., Kent, S.J.W., Aldous, C., Oosthuizen, G., Clarke, D.: The hospital cost of road traffic accidents at a south African regional trauma Centre: a micro-costing study. Injury. 45(1), 342–345 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Zheng, M., Li, T., Zhu, R., Chen, J., Ma, Z., Tang, M., Cui, Z., Wang, Z.: Traffic accident’s severity prediction: a deep-learning approach-based CNN network. IEEE Access. 7, 39897–39910 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Nel, F.: South African road death statistics are appalling: Here’s a way to bring them down”. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-12-11-south-africas-road-death-statistics-are-appalling-heres-a-way-to-bring-them-down/, Accessed: December 28 (2019)

  8. Ncube, P., Cheteni, P., Sindiyandiya, K.: Road accidents fatalities trends and safety management in South Africa. Prob. Perspect. Manag. 14(3), 627–633 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Road Traffic Management Corporation, State of road safety report: Calendar January–December 2018. http://www.rtmc.co.za/images/rtmc/docs/traffic_reports calendar/calendar_jan_dec_2018.pdf Accessed: March 08, (2020)

  10. Rios, M.: How South Korea has dramatically reduced road deaths. World Economic Forum, 2015, (WEF)/World Bank(WB).https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/how-southkorea-has-dramatically-reduced-road-deaths, Accessed: March 08, (2020)

  11. Gauteng Department of Community Safety (GDCS): Overview. https://provincialgovernment.co.za/units/view/29/gauteng/community-safety (2019) Accessed: April 12, 2020

  12. Kgosana R.: Road deaths in Gauteng continue to climb. The Citizen. https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/accidents/2200347/road-deaths-in-gauteng-continue-to-climb/ (2019) Accessed: March 08, (2020)

  13. Road Accident Fund (RAF): Welcome to the Road Accident Fund. https://www.raf.co.za/Pages/Default.aspx (2019) Accessed: April 12, 2020

  14. Road Accident Fund (RAF): Annual report. https://www.raf.co.za/MediaCenter/Annual%20Reports/RAF%20Annual%20Report%202019.pdf (2018/19) Accessed: February 09, 2020

  15. Zong, F., Xu, H. and Zhang, H.: Prediction for traffic accident severity: comparing the Bayesian network and regression models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering (2013). http://www.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2013/475194/

  16. De Oña, J., Mujalli, R.O., Calvo, F.J.: Analysis of traffic accident injury severity on Spanish rural highways using Bayesian networks. Accident Anal. Prevent. 43(1), 402–411 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Mujalli, R.O., López, G., Garach, L.: Bayes classifiers for imbalanced traffic accident datasets. Accid. Anal. Prev. 88, 37–51 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Xiong, X., Chen, L., Liang, J.: Analysis of roadway traffic accidents based on rough sets and Bayesian networks. Promet-Traffic Trans. 30(1), 71–81 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Olutayo, V.A., Eludire, A.A.: Traffic accident analysis using decision trees and neural networks. Int. J. Inform. Technol. Comput. Sci. 2, 22–28 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Beshah, T. and Hill, S., 2010, March. Mining road traffic accident data to improve safety: Role of road-related factors on accident severity in Ethiopia. In AAAI Spring Symposium: Artificial Intelligence for Development (Vol. 24, pp. 1173–1181) (2010)

  21. Wang, J., Luo, T., Fu, T.: Crash prediction based on traffic platoon characteristics using floating car trajectory data and the machine learning approach. Accid. Anal. Prev. 133, 105320 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Parsa, A.B., Taghipour, H., Derrible, S., Mohammadian, A.K.: Real-time accident detection: coping with imbalanced data. Accid. Anal. Prev. 129, 202–210 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Xiao, J.: SVM and KNN ensemble learning for traffic incident detection. Physica A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 517, 29–35 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Mujalli, R.O., De Oña, J.: A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks. J. Saf. Res. 42(5), 317–326 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Wang, C., Dai, Y., Zhou, W. and Geng, Y.: A vision-based video crash detection framework for mixed traffic flow environment considering lowvisibility condition. Journal of advanced transportation (2020). http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jat/2020/9194028/

  26. Kuang, L., Yan, H., Zhu, Y., Tu, S., Fan, X.: Predicting duration of traffic accidents based on cost-sensitive Bayesian network and weighted K-nearest neighbour. J. Intell. Transp. Syst. 23(2), 161–174 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Chan, H., Darwiche, A.: When do numbers really matter? J. Artif. Intell. Res. 17, 265–287 (2002)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  28. Kardan, A. and Bahrani, Y., 2014, October. Learner's knowledge modeling using annotation and Bayesian network. In 2014 4th International Conference on Computer and Knowledge Engineering (ICCKE) (pp. 117–122). IEEE (2014)

  29. Liu, Q., Ihler, A.: Variational algorithms for marginal MAP. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 14(1), 3165–3200 (2013)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  30. Huang, Z., Siniscalchi, S.M., Chen, I.F., Wu, J. and Lee, C.H.: Maximum a posteriori adaptation of network parameters in deep models. arXiv preprint arXiv:1503.02108 (2015)

  31. Guo, Z.G., Gao, X.G., Ren, H., Yang, Y., Di, R.H., Chen, D.Q.: Learning Bayesian network parameters from small data sets: a further constrained qualitatively maximum a posteriori method. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 91, 22–35 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  32. Shenoy, P.P., West, J.C.: Extended Shenoy–Shafer architecture for inference in hybrid bayesian networks with deterministic conditionals. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 52(6), 805–818 (2011)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  33. Chan, H., 2009, December. Sensitivity analysis of bayesian networks and its application for service engineering. In 2009 International Conference of Soft Computing and Pattern Recognition (pp. 551–556). IEEE (2009) http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/5368675

  34. Leonelli, M., Görgen, C., Smith, J.Q.: Sensitivity analysis in multilinear probabilistic models. Inf. Sci. 411, 84–97 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  35. Uusitalo, L.: Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecol. Model. 203(3–4), 312–318 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Wang, H., Ling, Z., Yu, K., Wu, X.: Towards efficient and effective discovery of Markov blankets for feature selection. Inf. Sci. 509, 227–242 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Yan, L., He, Y., Qin, L., Wu, C., Zhu, D. and Ran, B.: A Novel Feature Extraction Model for Traffic Injury Severity and Its Application to FARS Data Analysis (No. 17-02777) (2017). http://trid.trb.org/view/1438146

  38. Gormely, M.: Bayesian network (Part II). https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~mgormley/courses/10601-s17/slides/lecture23-bayesnet2.pdf (2017). Accessed: January 22, 2020

  39. Chen, S.H., Pollino, C.A.: Good practice in Bayesian network modelling. Environ. Model Softw. 37, 134–145 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Russell, S. and Norvig, P.: Artificial intelligence: a modern approach (global 3rd edition). Essex: Pearson, pp.122–125, (2016)

  41. Pamuła, T., Król, A.: The traffic flow prediction using bayesian and neural networks. In: Intelligent Transportation Systems–Problems and Perspectives, pp. 105–126. Springer, Cham (2016)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  42. Hongguo, X., Huiyong, Z. and Fang, Z., 2010, August. Bayesian network-based road traffic accident causality analysis. In 2010 WASE International Conference on Information Engineering (Vol. 3, pp. 413–417). IEEE (2010)

  43. Vaniš, M. and Urbaniec, K., 2017, May. Employing Bayesian Networks and conditional probability functions for determining dependences in road traffic accidents data. In 2017 Smart City Symposium Prague (SCSP) (pp. 1–5). IEEE (2017)

  44. Ahmad, A.S., Hassan, M.Y., Abdullah, M.P., Rahman, H.A., Hussin, F., Abdullah, H., Saidur, R.: A review on applications of ANN and SVM for building electrical energy consumption forecasting. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 33, 102–109 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Moral-García, S., Castellano, J.G., Mantas, C.J., Montella, A., Abellán, J.: Decision tree ensemble method for analyzing traffic accidents of novice drivers in urban areas. Entropy. 21(4), 360 (2019)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  46. Anguita, D., Ghio, A., Greco, N., Oneto, L. and Ridella, S., 2010, July. Model selection for support vector machines: Advantages and disadvantages of the machine learning theory. In The 2010 international joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN) (pp. 1–8). IEEE (2010)

  47. Fu, S. and Desmarais, M.C., 2010, June. Markov blanket based feature selection: a review of past decade. In Proceedings of the world congress on engineering (Vol. 1, pp. 321–328). Newswood Ltd (2010)

  48. Hänninen, M.: Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges. Accid. Anal. Prev. 73, 305–312 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Mijwel, M.M.: Artificial neural networks advantages and disadvantages. Retrieved from LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/artificial-neuralnetworks-advantages-disadvantages-maad-m-mijwel (2018)

  50. Weber, P., Simon, C.: Benefits of Bayesian Network Models. John Wiley & Sons, (2016)

  51. Darwiche, A., Casico, K., Allen, D., Chan, H., Chavira, M., Park, J., Zaloznyy, D., Zaloznyy, M.: SamIam: Sensitivity analysis, modeling, inference, and more, 2017. Software available from http://reasoning.cs.ucla.Edu/samiam (2017). Accessed 03 June 2020

  52. Darwiche, A., Casico, K., Allen, D., Chan, H., Chavira, M., Park, J., Zaloznyy, D. and Zaloznyy, M., 2017. SamIam: Sensitivity analysis, modeling, inference, and more, (2017). Software available from http://reasoning.cs.ucla.edu/samiam. Accessed 29 June 2020

  53. Pepinsky, T.B.: A note on listwise deletion versus multiple imputation. Politic. Anal. 26(4), 480–488 (2018)

  54. Mishra, A., Naik, B., Srichandan, S.K.: Missing value imputation using ANN optimized by genetic algorithm. Int. J. Appl. Indust. Eng. (IJAIE). 5(2), 41–57 (2018)

  55. Schneeweiss, S.: Sensitivity analysis and external adjustment for unmeasured confounders in epidemiologic database studies of therapeutics. Pharmacoepidemiol. Drug Saf. 15(5), 291303 (2006)

  56. Yen, M., Hill, M.C.: Global sensitivity analysis for uncertain parameters, models, and scenarios. In Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modelling”, pp.177–210. Elsevier (2017)

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge the Department of Applied Information Systems, the Institute for Intelligent Systems and the University of Johannesburg for availing resources for the study to be successful. The authors are also thankful to the Gauteng Department of Community Safety for providing knowledge and the dataset. Authors are also thankful to Dr. B Gatsheni for his useful comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tebogo Makaba.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Makaba, T., Doorsamy, W. & Paul, B.S. Bayesian Network-Based Framework for Cost-Implication Assessment of Road Traffic Collisions. Int. J. ITS Res. 19, 240–253 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13177-020-00242-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13177-020-00242-1

Keywords

Navigation