Skip to main content
Log in

Multi-Decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems: Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)

  • Published:
AMBIO Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in sub-arctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • ACIA. 2005. Arctic climate impact assessment—scientific report, 1st ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  • Åkerman, H.J., and M. Johansson. 2008. Thawing permafrost and thicker active layers in sub-arctic Sweden. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 19: 279–292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andrews, C., J. Dick, C. Jonasson, and T.V. Callaghan. 2011. Assessment of biological and environmental phenology at a landscape level from 30 years of fixed date repeat photography in Northern Sweden. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0167-z.

  • Arft, A.M., M.D. Walker, J. Gurevitch, J.M. Alatalo, M.S. Bret-Harte, M. Dale, M. Diemer, F. Gugerli, et al. 1999. Responses of tundra plants to experimental warming: Meta-analysis of the international tundra experiment. Ecological Monographs 69: 491–511.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhatt, U.S., D.A. Walker, M.K. Raynolds, J.C. Comiso, H.E. Epstein, G.S. Jia, R. Gens, J.E. Pinzon, et al. 2010. Circumpolar Arctic tundra vegetation change is linked to sea ice decline. Earth Interactions 14(8): 1–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Björk, R.G., and U. Molau. 2007. Ecology of Alpine snowbeds and the impact of global change. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 39(1): 34–43.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boelman, N.T., M. Stieglitz, K.L. Griffin, and G.R. Shaver. 2005. Inter-annual variability of NDVI in response to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge and tussock tundra. Oecologia 143(4): 588–597. doi:10.1007/s00442-005-0012-9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boelman, N.T., M. Stieglitz, H.M. Rueth, M. Sommerkorn, K.L. Griffin, G.R. Shaver, and J.A. Gamon. 2003. Response of NDVI, biomass, and ecosystem gas exchange to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge tundra. Oecologia 135(3): 414–421. doi:10.1007/s00442-003-1198-3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bokhorst, S., J.W. Bjerke, H. Tømmervik, T.V. Callaghan, and G.K. Phoenix. 2009. Winter warming events damage sub-Arctic vegetation: Consistent evidence from an experimental manipulation and a natural event. Journal of Ecology 97: 1408–1415.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Callaghan, T.V., L.O. Björn., Y. Chernov, F.S. Chapin, T.R. Christensen, B. Huntley, R. Ims, S. Jonasson, et al. 2005. Tundra and Polar Desert ecosystems. In ACIA. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 24–352. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  • Callaghan, T.V., C.E. Tweedie, and P.J. Webber. 2011a. Multi-decadal changes in Tundra environments and ecosystems: The International Polar Year Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF). Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0162-4.

  • Callaghan, T.V., T.R. Cristensen, and E.J. Jantze. 2011b. Plant and vegetation dynamics on Disko Island, West Greenland: Snapshots separated by over 40 years. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0169-x.

  • Callaghan, T.V., and C.E. Tweedie (eds.) 2011. Multi-decadal changes in Tundra environments and ecosystems—The International Polar Year Back to the Future Project. Ambio Special Issue 40(6).

  • Callaghan, T.V., F. Bergholm, T.R. Christensen, C. Jonasson, U. Kokfelt, and M. Johansson. 2010. A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L14705. doi:10.1029/2009GL042064,2010.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapin, F.S., M. Berman, T.V. Callaghan, P. Convey, A.-S. Crépin, K. Danell, H. Ducklow, B. Forbes, et al. 2005a. Polar systems. In Ecosystems and human well-being, Vol. 1: Current state and trends, ed. R. Hassan, R. Scholes, and N. Ash, 717–746. Washington: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chapin, F.S., and G.R. Shaver. 1985. Individualistic growth response of tundra plant species to manipulation of light, temperature, and nutrients in a field experiment. Ecology 66: 564–576.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapin, F.S., G.R. Shaver, A.E. Giblin, K.J. Nadelhoffer, and J.A. Laundre. 1995. Responses of Arctic tundra to experimental and observed changes in climate. Ecology 76: 694–711.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapin, F.S., M. Sturm, M.C. Serreze, J.P. McFadden, J.R. Key, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, T.S. Rupp, et al. 2005b. Role of land-surface changes in Arctic summer warming. Science 310: 657–660.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Danby, R.K., S. Koh, D.S. Hik, and L.W. Price. 2011. Four decades of plant community change in the Alpine Tundra of Southwest Yukon, Canada. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0172-2.

  • Danby, R.K., and D.S. Hik. 2007. Variability, contingency, and rapid change in recent subarctic alpine treeline dynamics. Journal of Ecology 95: 352–363.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daniëls, F.J.A., J.G. de Molenaar, M. Chytrý, and L. Tichý. 2011. Vegetation change in Southeast Greenland? Tasiilaq revisited after 40 years. Journal of Applied Vegetation Science 14: 230–241.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daniёls, F.J.A., and J.G. de Molenaar. 2011. Flora and vegetation of Tasiilaq, Formerly Angmagssalik, Southeast Greenland—a comparison of data from between around 1900 and 2007. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0171-3.

  • Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin, S. Yi, and C.D.C. Thompson. 2009. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003–2100: Implications for climate feedbacks. Ecological Applications 19: 1022–1043.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Forbes, B.C., M.M. Fauria, and P. Zetterberg. 2010. Russian Arctic warming and ‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Global Change Biology 16: 1542–1554.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami, S., J.A. Gamon, and C.E. Tweedie. 2011. Surface hydrology of an arctic ecosystem: Multiscale analysis of a flooding and draining experiment using spectral reflectance. Journal of Geophysical Research 116: G00I07. doi:10.1029/2010JG001346.

  • Hallinger, M., M. Manthey, and M. Wilmking. 2010. Establishing a missing link: Warm summers and winter snow cover promote shrub expansion into alpine tundra in Scandinavia. New Phytologist 186: 890–899.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Havström, M., T.V. Callaghan, and S. Jonasson. 1993. Differential growth responses of Cassiope tetragona, an arctic dwarf shrub, to environmental perturbations among three contrasting high- and sub-arctic sites. Oikos 66: 389–402.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hedenås, H., H. Olsson, C. Jonasson, J. Bergstedt, U. Dahlberg, and T.V. Callaghan. 2011. Changes in tree growth, biomass and vegetation over a thirteen-year period in the Swedish Sub-Arctic. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0173-1.

  • Henry, G.H.R., and U. Molau. 1997. Tundra plants and climatic change: The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Global Change Biology 3(1): 1–9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill, G.B., and G.H.R. Henry. 2011. Responses of high Arctic wet sedge Tundra to climate warming since 1980. Global Change Biology 17: 276–287.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinzman, L.D., N.D. Bettez, W.R. Bolton, F.S. Chapin, N.B. Dyurgerov, C.L. Fastie, B. Griffith, R.D. Hollister, et al. 2005. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions. Climatic Change 72: 251–298.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hudson, J.M.G., and G.H.R. Henry. 2009. Increased plant biomass in a high Arctic heath community from 1981 to 2008. Ecology 90: 2657–2663.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis—contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment. Report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • Johansson, C., V.A. Pohjola, C. Jonasson, and T.V. Callaghan. 2011. Multi-decadal changes in snow characteristics in sub-Arctic Sweden. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0164-2.

  • Johansson, M., J. Åkerman, F. Keuper, T.R. Christensen, H. Lantuit, and T.V. Callaghan. 2011. Past and present permafrost temperatures in the Abisko area: Redrilling of boreholes. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0163-3.

  • Johansson, T., N. Malmer, P.M. Crill, T. Friborg, J.H. Akerman, M. Mastepanov, and T.R. Christensen. 2006. Decadal vegetation changes in a northern peatland, greenhouse gas fluxes and net radiative forcing. Global Change Biology 12: 2352–2369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, D.R., D. Ebert-May, P.J. Webber, and C.E. Tweedie. 2011. Forecasting Alpine vegetation change using repeat sampling and a novel modeling approach. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0175-z.

  • Jónsdóttir, I.S., B. Magnússon, J. Gudmundsson, Á. Elmarsdóttir, and H. Hjartarson. 2005. Variable sensitivity of plant communities in Iceland to experimental warming. Global Change Biology 11: 553–563. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00928.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufman, D.S., D.P. Schneider, N.P. McKay, C.M. Ammann, R.S. Bradley, K.R. Briffa, G.H. Miller, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, et al. 2009. Recent warming reverses long-term Arctic cooling. Science 325: 1236–1239.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kausrud, K.L., A. Mysterud, H. Steen, J.O. Vik, E. Østbye, B. Cazelles, E. Framstad, A.M. Eikeset, et al. 2008. Linking climate change to lemming cycles. Nature 456: 93–97.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, J., O. Brandt, M. Johansson, and T.V. Callaghan. 2006. A long Arctic snow depth record from Abisko, northern Sweden, 1913–2004. Polar Research 25(2): 91–113.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krupnik, I., et al. 2011. Understanding Earth’s polar challenges: International Polar Year 20072008. Summary Report by ICSU/WMO Joint Committee for International Polar Year 2007–2008, University of the Arctic, Roveniemi. Edmonton: CCI Press.

  • Kullman, L. 2002. Rapid recent range-margin rise of tree and shrub species in the Swedish Scandes. Journal of Ecology 90: 68–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumpula, T., A. Pajunen, E. Kaarleja, B.C. Forbes, and F. Stammler. 2011. Land use and land cover change in Arctic Russia: Ecological and social implications of industrial development. Global Environmental Change. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.010.

  • Lang, S.I., J.H.C. Cornelissen, A. Hölzer, C.J.F. ter Braak, M. Ahrens, T.V. Callaghan, and R. Aerts. 2009. Determinants of cryptogam composition and diversity in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands: The importance of temporal, spatial and functional scales. Journal of Ecology 97: 299–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lougheed, V.L., M.G. Butler, D.C. McEwen, and J.E. Hobbie. 2011. Changes in tundra pond limnology: Re-sampling Alaskan ponds after 40 years. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0165-1.

  • Madsen, J., C. Jaspers, M. Tamstorf, C.E. Mortensen, and F. Rigét. 2011. Long-term effects of grazing and global warming on the composition and carrying capacity of graminoid marshes for moulting geese in East Greenland. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0170-4.

  • Melillo, J., T.V. Callaghan, F.I. Woodward, E. Salati, and S.K. Sinha. 1990. The effects on ecosystems. In Climate change, the IPCC Scientific Assessment, ed. J. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, 282–310. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers-Smith, I.H., D.S. Hik, C. Kennedy, D. Cooley, J.F. Johnstone, A.J. Kenney, and C.J. Krebs. 2011. Expansion of canopy-forming willows over the 20th century on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0168-y.

  • NRC. 2006. Toward an integrated arctic observing network. Washington, DC: The National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olofsson, J., L. Oksanen, T.V. Callaghan, P.E. Hulme, T. Oksanen, and O. Suominen. 2009. Herbivores inhibit climate-driven shrub expansion on the tundra. Global Change Biology 15: 2681–2693.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parsons, A.N., J.M. Welker, P.A. Wookey, M.C. Press, T.V. Callaghan, and J.A. Lee. 1994. Growth responses of four sub-arctic dwarf shrubs to simulated environmental change. Journal of Ecology 82: 307–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Post, E., M.C. Forchhammer, S. Bret-Harte, T.V. Callaghan, T.R. Christensen, B. Elberling, A.D. Fox, O. Gilg, et al. 2009. Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 325: 1355–1358.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Prach, K., J. Kosnar, J. Klimesova, and M. Hais. 2010. High Arctic vegetation after 70 years: A repeated analysis from Svalbard. Polar Biology 33: 635–639.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rundqvist,S., H. Hedenås, A. Sandström, U. Emanuelsson, H. Eriksson, C. Jonasson, and T.V. Callaghan. 2011. Tree and shrub expansion over the past 34 years at the tree-line near Abisko, Sweden. Ambio. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0174-0.

  • Sandberg, G. 1963. Växtvärlden i Abisko nationalpark. In Natur i Lappland, II ed, ed. K. Curry-Lindahl, 885–909. Uppsala: Bokförlaget Svensk Natur. (in Swedish).

    Google Scholar 

  • Schuur, E.A.G., J. Bockheim, J.G. Canadell, E. Euskirchen, C.B. Field, S.V. Goryachkin, S. Hagemann, P. Kuhry, et al. 2008. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: Implications for the global carbon cycle. BioScience 58: 701–714.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaver, G.R., T.V. Callaghan, C.E. Tweedie, and P.J. Webber. 2004. Flagship observatories for Arctic environmental research and monitoring. Woods Hole: Ecosystems Centre.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, L.C., Y. Sheng, G.M. MacDonald, and L.D. Hinzman. 2005. Disappearing Arctic lakes. Science 308: 1429.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Smol, J.P., and M.S.V. Douglas. 2007. Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104: 12395–12397.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Stow, D.A., A. Hope, D. McGuire, D. Verbyla, J. Gamon, F. Huemmrich, S. Houston, C. Racine, et al. 2004. Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover change in Arctic Tundra ecosystems. Remote Sensing of Environment 89: 281–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sturm, M., C.H. Racine, and K.D. Tape. 2001. Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature 411: 546–547.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • SWIPA. 2011. Snow, water, ice, permafrost in the Arctic. http://www.amap.no/swipa/.

  • Tape, K.D., M. Sturm, and C.H. Racine. 2006. The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Global Change Biology 12: 686–702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tømmervik, H., B. Johansen, I. Tombre, D. Thannheiser, K. Hogda, and E. Gaare. 2004. Vegetation changes in the Nordic mountain birch forest: The influence of grazing and climate change. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 36: 323–332.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Bogaert, R., K. Haneca, J. Hoogesteger, C. Jonasson, M. De Dapper, and T.V. Callaghan. 2011. A century of tree line changes in sub-Arctic Sweden show local and regional variability and only a minor role of 20th century climate warming. Journal of Biogeography. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02453.x.

  • Van Bogaert, R., C. Jonasson, M. De Dapper, and T.V. Callaghan. 2009. Competitive interaction between aspen and birch moderated by invertebrate and vertebrate herbivores and climate warming. Plant Ecology & Diversity 2: 221–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Bogaert, R., C. Jonasson, M. De Dapper, and T.V. Callaghan. 2010. Range expansion of thermophilic aspen (Populus tremula L.) in the Swedish Subarctic. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 42: 362–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Wijk, M.T., K.E. Clemmensen, G.R. Shaver, M. Williams, T.V. Callaghan, F.S. Chapin, J.H.C. Cornelissen, L. Gough, et al. 2004. Long-term ecosystem level experiments at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and at Abisko, Northern Sweden: Generalizations and differences in ecosystem and plant type responses to global change. Global Change Biology 10: 105–123.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verbyla, D. 2008. The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982–2003 satellite data. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 547–555.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker, M.D., C.H. Wahren, R.D. Hollister, G.H.R. Henry, L.E. Ahlquist, J.M. Alatalo, M.S. Bret-Harte, M.P. Calef, et al. 2006. Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103: 1342 -1346.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker, D.A., U.S. Bhatt, T.V. Callaghan, J.C. Comiso, H.E. Epstein, B.C. Forbes, M. Gill, W.A. Gould, et al. 2010. Vegetation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91: S115–S116.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walter, K.M., M.E. Edwards, G. Grosse, S.A. Zimov, and F.S. Chapin. 2007. Thermokarst lakes as a source of atmospheric CH4 during the last deglaciation. Science 318: 633–636.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wolf, A., T.V. Callaghan, and K. Larson. 2008. Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region. Climatic Change 87: 51–73.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wookey, P.A. 2008. Experimental approaches to predicting the future of tundra plant communities. Plant Ecology and Diversity 1: 299–307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wramneby, A., B. Smith, and P. Samuelsson. 2010. Hot spots of vegetation‐climate feedbacks under future greenhouse forcing in Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: D21119. doi:10.1029/2010JD014307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is part of the IPY project 512, “Back to the Future” (www.ipybtf.org). We thank all the contributors to this Special Issue and those that have published previously or are in the process of publishing—particularly the many graduate students who have contributed to and benefited from this project. The project would have been impossible without the formative studies of many researchers who established the IBP Tundra Biome project and other long-term studies exploited in the BTF study. The co-ordination of the project was financed by a grant from the Swedish Science Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet grant number 327-2007-833) to TVC and the US National Science Foundation (ANS-0732885, OPP-9906692) to CT. TVC also gratefully acknowledges support from the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (Formas grants numbered 214-2008-188 and 214-2009-389). The remaining co-authors acknowledge their national research councils for supporting their participation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US-NSF.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Terry V. Callaghan.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 27 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Callaghan, T.V., Tweedie, C.E., Åkerman, J. et al. Multi-Decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems: Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF). AMBIO 40, 705–716 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0179-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0179-8

Keywords

Navigation