Long-run availability of mineral commodities

Abstract

There are two competing views of mineral depletion, described as the fixed stock paradigm and the opportunity cost paradigm. Under the opportunity cost paradigm, mineral depletion is deemed essentially a matter of economics and availability a function of price. Long-term trends in real mineral prices suggest few problems of availability. The paper, however, argues that some of the factors that have kept prices down historically, notably economies of scale, low-cost energy and the opening out of new mineral provinces, may be losing their force, and even going into reverse. It also poses the question whether what is in the ground is the real issue anyway or whether in fact the ultimate constraint on minerals availability lies in the capacity of the planet to absorb the environmental by-products of mineral exploitation.