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Evaluating the variability and trends in extreme climate events in the Kashmir Valley using PRECIS RCM simulations

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Abstract

Climate is the major force that shapes the Earth. Under climate change conditions, the extreme events shall occur more frequently with greater force for devastation. In this study, Predicting Regional climate for impact studies-Regional climate model (PRECIS RCM) was used to analyze the trends in temperature and precipitation using climate indices for the Kashmir valley, western Himalaya. We analyzed 27 climate extremity indices using PRECIS RCM simulations for a baseline (1961–1990) and future scenario (1990–2098) using RCLIMDEX model. Trend analysis was carried out using Mann–Kendall test method and Theil-Sen estimator. PRECIS RCM covers Kashmir valley in 14 grids of 50 km × 50 km horizontal resolution each. The climatic grids for baseline data (1961–1990) indicated no noteworthy patterns in hot and cold extreme indices. However, climate grids for future simulations (1990–2098) showed an increasing trend in all hot extreme events but no significant trend in cold extremes. The futuristic frequency and intensity in the extreme temperature events showed significant increase compared to extreme precipitation events. The overall results indicated that grids pertaining to valley plains shall have more extreme events in maximum temperatures while as the grids towards the mountain fronts shall have more extreme events in precipitation and minimum temperatures in the future. The results establish a strong link between changing climate and climatic extremes in the region. The study is finally aimed to use PRECIS RCM simulations for impact assessment studies in the region.

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Acknowledgements

This research work has been accomplished under the research grants provided by, (1) Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (DST-GOI) for the project titled “National Himalayan Mission for Sustainable Himalayan Ecosystem; Climate Change Centre, Jammu and Kashmir” and (2) Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) sponsored scheme titled, “Environment Information System (ENVIS), Jammu and Kashmir centre”. The authors express their gratitude to the funding agencies for the financial assistance. The PRECIS simulations from IITM, Pune were facilitated under a Joint Indo-UK collaborative programme on climate change impacts in India. We acknowledge the support received from NATCOM (MoEF, Government of India) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Government of United Kingdom. We are grateful to the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Meteorological Office, for making available the PRECIS data for the simulations used in this study. we are thankful to Director, IITM, for facilitating data for the study. Finally, we would like to acknowledge the kind support provided by Prof. Md. Nazrul Islam, Executive Editor-in-chief of the journal for expediting the review process of our publication.

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  1. Centre for Climate Change, Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India

    Ishfaq Gujree, Ishfaq Wani & Majid Farooq

  2. Department of Environmental Science, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India

    Muhammad Muslim

  3. Jammu and Kashmir Environmental Information System (ENVIS) Centre, Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India

    Majid Farooq & Gowhar Meraj

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  1. Ishfaq Gujree
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Correspondence to Gowhar Meraj.

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Gujree, I., Wani, I., Muslim, M. et al. Evaluating the variability and trends in extreme climate events in the Kashmir Valley using PRECIS RCM simulations. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 3, 1647–1662 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-017-0370-4

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