Abstract
How does the rate at which firms adopt new technologies affect the level of education and training of a country’s workforce? What is then the mix of general education and technology-specific training that maximises the growth rate of an economy? We try to answer these questions by developing an endogenous growth model which focuses on privately financed general education and firm financed technology specific training in a setting where creative destruction renders technologies gradually obsolete. We reproduce some stylized facts regarding the technology-education-training relationship and we show how the optimum amount of time devoted to education and training is affected by the rate of technical change itself. In particular, we find that a faster arrival of new technologies shifts the private knowledge portfolio towards general human capital, less prone to creative destruction. We also find that households tend to under-invest in education, thus leading to lower growth rates than technically feasible, and higher training costs than absolutely necessary. This suggests that there is room for education policy reducing private education fees.
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Notes
Bassanini et al. (2005, Chart 2.2) also show a slightly negative correlation between participation in training (i.e. the share of employees participating in training programs) and average annual training hours in Europe. Due to lack of macroeconomic data on training hours, it was impossible to reproduce the picture for the USA.
We refer here to post-compulsory education, and in particular tertiary education.
In contrast to previous work, in our setting it is technological change that creates the chance of a mismatch between the skills acquired by individuals and the skills to be used in the workplace. In other words, technological change generates new tasks that can only be performed after the acquisition of a certain amount of job-related knowledge. In addition, technological change affects the rate at which human capital becomes obsolete: as a consequence, job training can increase or decrease at higher rates of technological change.
This hypothesis is supported by recent empirical studies on technology adoption, training, and productivity in Canadian manufacturing (Boothby et al. 2010), for example.
In line with Romer (1990), our model does not include any form of unemployment. Although we acknowledge that market imperfections and frictions can cause unemployment, our focus is on the long run (steady state) effects of a combination of training and education in a world in which growth comes from ever changing new technologies. One of the potential frictions (i.e. the imperfect substitutability at the input side of workers, because they have to acquire technology specific knowledge before they can productively use the new technologies) actually has a very prominent place in the model, whereas the other friction are not.
In line with Piore (1968), we assume that training, innovation, and current output are the multiple products of a single process, and the ability to perform a given job is correlated with the length of time the worker has “been around”.
Since our focus is on the interplay between technology-specific training and generic labor qualities obtained through formal education, and because we want to use continuous time intertemporal optimization techniques in order to obtain information about the training/education nexus, we do not employ an overlapping generations framework. Since these training and education activities require time and other resources, an intertemporal continuous time setting as used in the endogenous growth literature seems to be especially suited to our problem. We draw on Lucas (1988), particularly in relation to those elements pertaining to the opportunity costs involved in using labor for different purposes, and on Romer (1990) for aspects related to use of heterogeneous intermediate goods in a ‘love of variety’ setting.
Since there is no reason a priori to expect that a doubling of both arguments implies a doubling of the output, we adopted a general setting of non-constant returns to scale in defining Eq. (2). Moreover, in our model \(\varepsilon\) is constant over time (because \(\varphi\) and \(\psi\) are both constant) which prevents the emergence of a scale effect that would affect endogenous growth models à la Romer (see Jones 1995).
Note that this implies that all production sectors have to offer the same wage rate otherwise one sector would command all the labor available or none of it.
Obviously, this is due to our assumption that consumers are well-informed about the direct productivity effects of their education decisions, but ignore the growth effects that these decisions may have through their impact on R&D productivity (we return to this in the section discussing the R&D sector). A central planner would also take these growth effects into account, leading to a different allocation of time between education and other efforts, and to higher growth, ceteris paribus.
The implication of this is that for groups of countries that differ with respect to these parameters \(\zeta_{1}\) and \(\zeta_{2}\) learning and teaching hours would be negatively correlated, while for groups of countries that differ with respect to \(\gamma_{1}\), learning and teaching hours would be positively correlated.
Indeed, as we will show later, technological change leads to a continuous upward pressure on wages, and hence to a continuous downward adjustment in the demand for labor. So, by extending the training period, one would normally need to train fewer people because of the anticipated fall in demand for labor per technology over time in the steady state.
Consequently, since A(t) has been defined as the index of the newest technology at time t, then t A = t. Hence, by definition also w A = w(t).
Obviously, in the full simultaneous model, the expected growth rate of w will be an endogenous variable. This applies also to the interest rate r and to ψ and φ.
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We thank three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. The responsibility for the remaining errors owns to the Authors only.
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Appendix: The core equations of the model and the nature of the steady state
Appendix: The core equations of the model and the nature of the steady state
This Appendix provides the simultaneous equation system (implemented in Mathematica 9 (© Wolfram)) that we used to obtain the results presented above. The core-equations of the simultaneous system are given by:
The variables for which this system is solved are \(H_{R} ,H_{P} ,J,T,\varphi ,\psi ,\hat{A},s,r\). Solving the system consisting of just Eqs. (35)–(42) for a given value of r gives rise to (an implicit) growth-supply side relationship between \(\hat{A}\) and the interest rate r, as suggested by Eq. (34). (43) reproduces the growth-demand side of the model. The final solution of the model can be thought of as being obtained by confronting the growth supply side with the growth demand side of the model.
A final remark concerns the nature of the steady state solution obtained by the system above. Contrary to the Love of Variety growth models by Romer (1990) and Jones (1995), for example, our model does not account for physical capital accumulation. That allows all final output to be consumed, and there is no direct real trade-off between consumption now and consumption in the future because the capital stock as a stock of ‘cumulative consumption foregone’ (cf. Romer (1990)) does not exist. Hence, the hump-shaped capital growth locus one usually finds in growth models with fixed capital formation is missing here. The intertemporal trade-off between current and future consumption that does play a role in our model is due to the allocation of labor time over its various uses. Since we made the assumption of the existence of a steady state in order to arrive at the simple expressions for the allocation of labor time as given by (30.A) and (30.B), part of the more intricate dynamic relationship between the allocation of labor and the actual/transitional growth rate has effectively been disregarded for now. However, as the model generates a priori sensible outcomes, it seems to be worthwhile to look into the matter of (the stability of) transitional growth more closely in the future.
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Van Zon, A., Antonietti, R. Education and training in a model of endogenous growth with creative wear-and-tear. Econ Polit 33, 35–62 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-016-0023-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-016-0023-5