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Fine resolution simulations of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific

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Abstract

Fine-resolution (18 km) regional climate model simulations using the GFDL regional climate model ZETAC are implemented over a South Pacific domain, where the interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation is large. When forced with observed sea surface temperatures and reanalysis boundary conditions, the model is able to give a good simulation of the interannual variation of regions of tropical cyclone formation, with tropical cyclones simulated to form much further east during El Niño years, as observed. An imposed climate-change perturbation is applied to the model, with the resulting simulation indicating that fewer tropical cyclones form in this region in a warmer world. This result appears to be most closely related to increased vertical velocity in the equatorial Pacific, leading to compensating subsidence in the adjacent tropical cyclone formation regions of the South Pacific, thus suppressing tropical cyclone formation.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Program of the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency for providing partial funding for this research, particularly Jack Katzfey of CSIRO, who managed this project. The first author would like to thank the Princeton University/GFDL Visiting Scientist Program for providing the opportunity to visit GFDL, where this work was commenced. The author would also like to thank Tom Knutson, Steve Garner, Chris Kerr and Joe Sirutis of GFDL for assistance and helpful discussions regarding this work. The simulations were performed on the Australian NCI national supercomputing facility.

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  1. School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia

    Kevin Walsh

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Walsh, K. Fine resolution simulations of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific. Clim Dyn 45, 2619–2631 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2497-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2497-1

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