Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Evaluation of simulated decadal variations over the Euro-Mediterranean region from ENSEMBLES to Med-CORDEX

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Med-CORDEX simulations over the period 1979–2011 are evaluated with regard to their capability to represent observed decadal variations over the Euro-Mediterranean region and improve upon previous generation simulations from the ENSEMBLES project in their various experimental set-ups. Such an evaluation is needed to inform the use of these simulations and also future model development. For temperature, both Med-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES simulations tend to provide comparable results: they generally capture the sign and timing of the anomalies but not the amplitude. In general, no clear stratification appears when considering different types of Med-CORDEX regional modeling systems. Rather, it is remarkable that certain periods are poorly represented by all systems with a general underestimation of the observed long-term temperature trend, mostly in the summer season, even with respect to the corresponding global drivers. For precipitation, the Med-CORDEX simulations are closer to observations than the other datasets, with some improvement with respect to ENSEMBLES dataset. In general, all the systems experience difficulties in representing anomalies during specific periods or for specific regions. These appear in part due to limitations in the reanalysis boundary forcing data. For instance, in the second part of 1980s, the spatial patterns of surface air temperature during DJF/MAM are generally poorly represented, as well as the regionally averaged MAM/JJA surface air temperature decadal anomalies. Overall, the evaluation suggests limited improvement in Med-CORDEX simulations compared to ENSEMBLES, and a lack of sensitivity to resolution or coupling configuration, with persisting problems in part likely related to the representation of surface processes that could also affect the viability of future projections (e.g. the estimation of temperature trends). A set of decadal variability evaluation metrics, as applied in this study, could be useful in the context of a broader evaluation framework.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akthar N, Brauch J, Ahrens B (2016) Impact of resolution and ocean-coupling on regional climate model simulations over the Mediterranean Sea (in preparation)

  • Allan R, Ansell T (2006) A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004. J Clim 19:5816–5842

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Artale V, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’Aquila A, Hermann M, Pisacane G, Ruti PM, Sannino G, Struglia MV, Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal JS, Rauscher S (2010) An atmosphere-ocean regional climate model for the mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0691-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M et al (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Change 81(S1):71–95. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boé J, Terray L (2014) Land–sea contrast, soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions: interplays and roles in future summer European climate change. Clim Dyn 42:683–699. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1868-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavicchia L, Gualdi S, Sanna A, Oddo P (2015) The regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model COSMO-NEMO_MFS. CMCC research paper RP0254. http://www.cm1cc.it/publications/rp0254-the-regional-ocean-atmosphere-coupled-model-cosmo-nemo_mfs

  • Cheruy F, Dufresne JL, Hourdin F, Ducharne A (2014) Role of clouds and land-atmosphere coupling in midlatitude continental summer warm biases and climate change amplification in CMIP5 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 41:6493–6500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colin JM, Déqué M, Radu R, Somot S (2010) Sensitivity study of heavy precipitations in limited area model climate simulation: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique. Tellus Ser A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 62(5):591–604. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00467.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dell’Aquila A, Calmanti S, Ruti PM, Struglia MV, Pisacane G, Adriana C, Sannino G (2012) Impacts of seasonal cycle fluctuations over the Euro-Mediterranean area using a regional earth system model. Clim Res 2:135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diffenbaugh NS, Giorgi F (2012) Climate change hot-spots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. Clim Change Lett 114:813–822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Djurdjevic V, Rajkovic B (2008) Verification of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model using satellite observations over the Adriatic Sea. Ann Geophys 26(7):1935–1954. doi:10.5194/angeo-26-1935-2008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Domínguez M, Romera R, Sánchez E, Fita L et al (2013) Present-climate precipitation and temperature extremes over Spain from a set of high resolution RCMs. Clim Res 58:149–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drobinski P, Ducrocq V et al (2014) HyMeX: a 10-year multidisciplinary program on the Mediterranean water cycle. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:1063–1082. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00242.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan Y, van den Dool H (2004) Climate prediction center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5 degree resolution for 1948 to present. J Geophys Res 109:D10102. doi:10.1029/2003JD004345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feser F, Rockel B, von Storch H, Winterfeldt J, Zahn M (2011) Regional climate models add value to global model data: a review and selected examples. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:1181–1192. doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3061.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flaounas E, Drobinski P, Bastin S (2013) Dynamical downscaling of IPSL-CM5 CMIP5 historical simulations over the Mediterranean: benefits on the representation of regional surface winds and cyclogenesis. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1606-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33:L08707. doi:10.1029/2006GL025734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58(3):175

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F, Mariotti L et al (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleckler P, Ebert E, Eyring V, Pincus R, Taylor K, Wood R (2010) A world climate research programme (WCRP) panel tasked to identify and promote performance metrics for climate models. In: Stocker T, et al Meeting report of the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi model climate projections, pp 47–48, IPCC, Boulder, Colo. http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/supportingmaterial/IPCC_EM_MultiModelEvaluation_MeetingReport.pdf

  • Hagemann S, Jones R, Christensen OB, Deque M, Jacob D, Machenhauer B, Vidale PL (2004) Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe. Clim Dyn 23:547–567

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642. doi:10.1002/joc.3711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hourdin F, Musat I, Bony S, Braconnot P, Codron F, Dufresne JL, Fairhead L, Filiberti MA, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix JY, Krinner G, Levan P, Li ZX, Lott F (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Clim Dyn 27(7–8):787–813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the 5th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp. doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324

  • Jones PD, Harris I (2008) Climatic research unit (CRU) time-series datasets of variations in climate with variations in other phenomena. NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre. http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/3f8944800cc48e1cbc29a5ee12d8542d

  • Kjellström E, Thejll P, Rummukainen M, Christensen JH, Boberg F, Christensen OB, Maule CF (2013) Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions. Clim Res 56:103–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krzic A, Tosic I, Djurdjevic V, Veljovic K, Rajkovic B (2011) Changes in some indices over Serbia according to the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios. Clim Res 49:73–86. doi:10.3354/cr01008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lebeaupin-Brossier C, Drobinski P, Beranger K, Bastin S, Orain F (2013) Ocean memory effect on the dynamics of coastal heavy precipitation preceded by a mistral event in the north-western Mediterranean. Q J R Meteorol Soc 139(675):1583–1597. doi:10.1002/qj.2049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz P, Jacob D (2010) Validation of temperature trends in the ENSEMBLES regional climate model runs driven by ERA40. Clim Res 44:167–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Dell’Aquila A (2012) Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1056-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Pan Y, Zeng N, Alessandri A (2015) Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3

    Google Scholar 

  • Reichler T, Kim J (2008) How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:303–311. doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruti PM, Somot S, Giorgi F, Dubois C, Flaounas E, Obermann A, Dell’Aquila A, Pisacane G, Harzallah A, Lombardi E, Ahrens B, Akhtar N, Alias A, Arsouze T, Aznar R, Bastin S, Bartholy J, Béranger K, Beuvier J, Bouffies-Cloché S, Brauch J, Cabos W, Calmanti S, Calvet JC, Carillo A, Conte D, Coppola E, Djurdjevic V, Drobinski P, Elizalde-Arellano A, Gaertner M, Galàn P, Gallardo C, Gualdi S, Goncalves M, Jorba O, Jordà G, L’Heveder B, Lebeaupin-Brossier C, Li L, Liguori G, Lionello P, Maciàs D, Nabat P, Onol B, Raikovic B, Ramage K, Sevault F, Sannino G, Struglia M, Sanna A, Torma C, Vervatis V (2015) MEDCORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00176.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI et al (2006) Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443:205–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sevault F, Somot S, Alias A, Dubois C, Lebeaupin-Brossier C, Nabat P, Adloff F, Déqué M, Decharme B (2014) A fully coupled Mediterranean regional climate system model: design and evaluation of the ocean component for the 1980–2012 period. Tellus A 66:23967. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.23967

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Somot S, Sevault F, Déqué M, Crépon M (2008) 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere ocean regional climate model. Glob Planet Change 63:112–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stefanon M, Drobinski P, D’Andrea F, Lebeaupin-Brossier C, Bastin S (2014) Soil moisture-temperature feedbacks at meso-scale during summer heat waves over western Europe. Clim Dyn 42(5–6):1309–1324. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1794-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ et al (2005) The era-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012. doi:10.1256/qj.04.176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work has been supported by the EU-FP7 2007–2013 projects IMPACT2C (282746), SPECS (308378) and by the Italian DTA-MIUR NextData national Project. UCLM contribution has been partially funded by the Spanish Government and the European Regional Development Fund, through grants CGL2007-66440-C04-02, CGL2010-18013 and CGL2013-47261-R. This work is part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (www.medcordex.eu) supported by the HyMeX programme (www.hymex.org). The comments of the two anonymous referees contributed to a notable improvement to this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alessandro Dell’Aquila.

Additional information

This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 10025 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Dell’Aquila, A., Mariotti, A., Bastin, S. et al. Evaluation of simulated decadal variations over the Euro-Mediterranean region from ENSEMBLES to Med-CORDEX. Clim Dyn 51, 857–876 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3143-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3143-2

Keywords

Navigation