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Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations

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Abstract

The potential changes in the strength and location of five low-level jets (LLJs) located within four Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using an ensemble of simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional model at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral and lower boundary forcing fields are from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), and we analyse a historical period (1995–2014) along with two future periods (2041–2060 and 2080–2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. The RegCM4, as driven by the GCMs, is capable of capturing most of the observed climatological features of the LLJs, both in terms of spatial location and seasonal evolution. Analysis of the influence of global warming on the LLJs shows a consistent strengthening of the jets and a shift in their location under both warming scenarios. The Monsoon and West African westerly LLJs exhibit a northward shift, while the Caribbean and South American LLJs present a westward expansion. The use of an ensemble of high-resolution simulations is found to provide a key element for a robust assessment of changes in LLJs associated with future global warming scenarios.

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Acknowledgements

We greatly appreciate the comments and suggestions of the editor and three anonymous reviewers, which helped to improve this manuscript. The authors thank the CMIP5, ECMWF, NASA, ICTP, NCAR and Oak Ridge National Laboratory for making available the data used in this work. Special thanks for Graziano Giuliani and Ivan Girotto from our ICTP group. We would like to thank the CINECA super-computing center for access to the HPC system. M.A. was supported by the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility and the National Climate‐Computing Research Center at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy

    José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Sushant Das, Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi, Francesca Raffaele & Taleena Sines

  2. Laboratorio Nacional de Modelaje y Sensores Remotos, Campo Experimental Pabellón, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP), Pabellón de Arteaga, Aguascalientes, Mexico

    Arturo Corrales-Suastegui

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Melissa S. Bukovsky

  4. Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA

    Moetasim Ashfaq

  5. Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico

    José Antonio Salinas

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  1. José Abraham Torres-Alavez
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Torres-Alavez, J.A., Das, S., Corrales-Suastegui, A. et al. Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations. Clim Dyn 57, 1551–1569 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05671-6

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