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An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change

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Abstract

As an example of the technique of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change, a multivariate signal or fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect is defined using the zonal mean atmospheric temperature change as a function of height and latitude between equilibrium climate model simulations with control and doubled CO2 concentrations. This signal is compared with observed atmospheric temperature variations over the period 1963 to 1988 from radiosonde-based global analyses. There is a significant increase of this greenhouse signal in the observational data over this period.

These results must be treated with caution. Upper air data are available for a short period only, possibly too short to be able to resolve any real greenhouse climate change. The greenhouse fingerprint used in this study may not be unique to the enhanced greenhouse effect and may be due to other forcing mechanisms. However, it is shown that the patterns of atmospheric temperature change associated with uniform global increases of sea surface temperature, with El NinoSouthern Oscillation events and with decreases of stratospheric ozone concentrations individually are different from the greenhouse fingerprint used here.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Dynamical Meteorology, Monash University, 3168, Clayton, VIC, Australia

    DJ Karoly & JA Cohen

  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307, Boulder, CO, USA

    GA Meehl

  3. Meteorological Office, RG12 2SZ, Bracknell, UK

    JFB Mitchell

  4. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton University, 08542, Princeton, NJ, USA

    AH Oort, RJ Stouffer & RT Wetherald

Authors
  1. DJ Karoly
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  2. JA Cohen
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  3. GA Meehl
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  4. JFB Mitchell
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  5. AH Oort
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  6. RJ Stouffer
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  7. RT Wetherald
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Karoly, D., Cohen, J., Meehl, G. et al. An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change. Climate Dynamics 10, 97–105 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210339

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210339

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