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Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia

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Abstract

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees’ ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0–7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0–7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for providing the historical data, and QCCCE and CSIRO for the projection data used in the analysis. Ian Smith (BOM), Kevin Hennessy (CSIRO) and Jim Ricketts (QCCCE) also provided valuable advice on data and methodology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Melbourne School of Land and Environment, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Rebecca Darbyshire, Leanne Webb & E. W. R. Barlow

  2. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Leanne Webb

  3. Victorian Department of Primary Industries, Tatura, Australia

    Ian Goodwin

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  1. Rebecca Darbyshire
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  2. Leanne Webb
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  3. Ian Goodwin
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  4. E. W. R. Barlow
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Correspondence to Rebecca Darbyshire.

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Darbyshire, R., Webb, L., Goodwin, I. et al. Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia. Int J Biometeorol 57, 355–366 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0558-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0558-2

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