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Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change

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Abstract

Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Victoria, and AusAID for funding and ongoing support. We also thank the University of Melbourne for logistic support. We thank three anonymous reviewers for comments that improved the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Deepa S. Rawal.

Appendices

Appendix 1

Table 5 Description of selected eucalypts and seed source information

Appendix 2

Conceptual framework for TACA-GEM. Three modules centred around niche elements (sensu Grubb 1977) are used to define the regeneration niche for a species and determine both germination and establishment potential from both single and multiple climate years. The three niche modules are characterised as follows: (a) habitat niche, (b) phenology niche, and (c) germination niche. The phenological niche module relates to the timing of growth of established plants and the effect of frost on establishment and germination success. The germination niche module includes the phenological processes of germination and interacts with the habitat module to determine establishment. The user can evaluate a species’ response to varying climate years/scenarios and soil types at both the germination and establishment phases.

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Rawal, D.S., Kasel, S., Keatley, M.R. et al. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change. Int J Biometeorol 59, 1237–1252 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0935-0

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