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Evaluation of PVA Models of Arboreal Marsupials: Coupling Models with Long-term Monitoring Data

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Abstract

This paper reports the outcomes of a novel inter-twining of long-term monitoring data and population modelling to assess the accuracy of predictions of a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) model. In particular, the relative effectiveness of different management options for reserving areas from timber harvesting was assessed for two forest-dependent arboreal marsupials, the greater glider (Petauroides volans) and Leadbeater's Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri). We used data from 7 years of monitoring conducted at 161 sites to assess and modify, where appropriate, previous population models of the two species of arboreal marsupials. The results indicated that the importance of food resources for both had been underestimated in past work. Despite this, the modified models that included increased importance of food availability did not change the predicted risks of decline substantially, particularly for Leadbeater's Possum. Importantly, past conclusions about the optimal sizes of patches to reserve within the forests used wood production were robust to changes in the model. This is a valuable finding because the work we report is one of the first to empirically test the robustness of the relative predictions of a PVA model. Nevertheless, the new insights we derived from this study have implications both for: (1) the implementation of our ongoing long-term monitoring study, in particular the value of what can be termed ȁ8adaptive monitoring', and, (2) the establishment of a new silvicultural experiment designed to better create habitat for arboreal marsupials within logged and regenerated sites.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, The Australian National University, 0200, Canberra, ACT, Australia

    David B. Lindenmayer

  2. Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, Royal Botanic Gardens, Melbourne, c/o School of Botany, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

    Michael A. Mccarthy

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  1. David B. Lindenmayer
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Correspondence to David B. Lindenmayer.

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Lindenmayer, D.B., Mccarthy, M.A. Evaluation of PVA Models of Arboreal Marsupials: Coupling Models with Long-term Monitoring Data. Biodivers Conserv 15, 4079–4096 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-005-3367-7

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