Abstract
Objectives
Analysis of long-term trends in smoking and causes of death in Australia are prevented by a lack of detailed tobacco consumption data prior to World War II. The objective of this study was to reconstruct data on tobacco consumption in Australia back to 1887 and examine its relationship with population-level lung cancer mortality, corrected for biases and miscoding.
Methods
Back-extrapolation techniques and existing tobacco sales data were combined to estimate tobacco consumption prior to the 1940s. The relationship of tobacco and lung cancer mortality was examined with descriptive period and cohort analyses and log-linear Poisson regression models of cumulative cohort consumption.
Results
The results show that tobacco consumption rose steadily in Australia for the majority of years from 1887 to World War II, before increasing drastically in the following years and then falling sharply to the present day. Lung cancer mortality was strongly influenced by tobacco consumption, peaking 20–25 years after the peak in tobacco consumption for men and 25–30 years for women. Regression models found cumulative consumption a very strong predictor of mortality.
Conclusions
Period and cohort trends in smoking and lung cancer were similar to many other Western countries. The effectiveness of smoking reduction campaigns in Australia clearly reduced male lung cancer mortality and provides guidance for other countries, such as China, where smoking prevalence remains high.
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Acknowledgments
We wish to thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for lending the Demography Bulletins, the staff who entered the data from these Bulletins, and Len Smith from the Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, The Australian National University for providing Australian population data for specific years prior to 1921.
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Adair, T., Hoy, D., Dettrick, Z. et al. Reconstruction of long-term tobacco consumption trends in Australia and their relationship to lung cancer mortality. Cancer Causes Control 22, 1047–1053 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-011-9781-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-011-9781-0