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Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

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Abstract

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO2 and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO2 and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO2 concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO2 equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See http://www.simcap.org for EQW-software and data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Physics, Environmental Science Department, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), Rämistrasse 101, CH-8092, Zurich, Switzerland

    Malte Meinshausen

  2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A31, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Bill Hare (Visiting Scientist)

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, Colorado, United States

    Malte Meinshausen & Tom M. M. Wigley

  4. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Detlef Van Vuuren & Michel G. J. Den Elzen

  5. EEA European Topic Center for Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC), MNP, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Rob Swart

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  1. Malte Meinshausen
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Meinshausen, M., Hare, B., Wigley, T.M.M. et al. Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets. Climatic Change 75, 151–194 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9013-2

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