Abstract
The accuracy of weather forecasts has experienced remarkable improvements over the recent decades and is now considered important tools for developing the climate resilience of smallholder farmers, particularly as climate change upends traditional farming calendars. However, the effect of observations of climate change on the use of weather forecasts has not been studied. In an analysis of smallholder farming in Zambia, Kenya, and Jamaica, we document low weather forecast use, showing that perceptions of changes in the climate relate to views on forecast accuracy. Drawing on detailed data from Zambia, we show that weather forecast use (or not) is associated with perceptions of the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the forecast, with rates of weather forecast use far lower among those who believe climate change impacts forecast accuracy. The results suggest a novel feedback whereby climate change erodes confidence in weather forecasts. Thus, in a changing climate where improvements in weather forecasts have been made, farmers thus experience a double disadvantage whereby climate change disrupts confidence in traditional ways of knowing the weather and lowers trust in supplementary technical forecasting tools.
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Acknowledgements
We are indebted to the many farmers who shared their ideas and time, often in lieu of tending their farms. We especially thank Allan Chilenga from the Zambian Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI) within the Zambian Ministry of Agriculture for his help in organizing field work.
Funding
The research in Zambia and Kenya was funded by the US National Science Foundation, grant numbers SES-1360463, DEB-1924309, and SES-1832393. Research in Jamaica was funded by the NOAA (grant NA13OAR4310184) for the International Research and Applications Project (IRAP), with contributions from USAID.
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Guido, Z., Lopus, S., Waldman, K. et al. Perceived links between climate change and weather forecast accuracy: new barriers to tools for agricultural decision-making. Climatic Change 168, 9 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03207-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03207-9