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Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components

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Abstract

In this paper we review and update detection and attribution studies in sea level and its major contributors during the past decades. Tide gauge records reveal that the observed twentieth-century global and regional sea level rise is out of the bounds of its natural variability, evidencing thus a human fingerprint in the reported trends. The signal varies regionally, and it partly depends on the magnitude of the background variability. The human fingerprint is also manifested in the contributors of sea level for which observations are available, namely ocean thermal expansion and glaciers’ mass loss, which dominated the global sea level rise over the twentieth century. Attribution studies provide evidence that the trends in both components are clearly dominated by anthropogenic forcing over the second half of the twentieth century. In the earlier decades, there is a lack of observations hampering an improved attribution of causes to the observed sea level rise. At certain locations along the coast, the human influence is exacerbated by local coastal activities that induce land subsidence and increase the risk of sea level-related hazards.

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Acknowledgments

M. Marcos acknowledges a “Ramon y Cajal” contract funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy. This work was supported by the Research Project CLIMPACT (CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy. S. Dangendorf acknowledges a Visiting Research Grant from the University of the Balearic Islands. A. Slangen is supported by a CSIRO Office of the Chief Executive Fellowship. H. Palanisamy is supported by a CNES/CLS Ph.D. fund. L. Fenoglio acknowledges the support by DFG in the frame of the COSELE Project. This paper is an outcome of the ISSI workshop on “Integrative study of sea level”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (UIB-CSIC), Mallorca, Spain

    Marta Marcos

  2. University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Ben Marzeion

  3. University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany

    Sönke Dangendorf

  4. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Australia

    Aimée B. A. Slangen

  5. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Aimée B. A. Slangen

  6. Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Toulouse, France

    Hindumathi Palanisamy

  7. University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

    Luciana Fenoglio-Marc

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  1. Marta Marcos
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Marcos, M., Marzeion, B., Dangendorf, S. et al. Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components. Surv Geophys 38, 329–348 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9373-3

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