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Projecting environmental suitability areas for the seaweed Gracilaria birdiae (Rhodophyta) in Brazil: Implications for the aquaculture pertaining to five environmentally crucial parameters

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Abstract

Climate change has affected the distribution of economically important marine organisms worldwide. Seaweeds are among the most cultivated marine organisms in aquaculture and whose production has been increasing annually. Environmental Suitability Modeling (ESM) has currently been applied to predict the future distribution of economically important species concerning impacts from climate change. In this context, this study aimed to project how a global change scenario (RCP8.5) will affect the cultivation of the red seaweed Gracilaria birdiae in the Brazilian coast based on ESM. Species occurrence data were obtained from the literature and bioclimatic data were acquired from Bio-ORACLE. The modeling was performed by integrating the MaxEnt algorithm to R software. Significant differences between future and present environmental suitability for the seaweed cultivation were validated by applying the Friedman test. Our results revealed a significant increase in suitable areas for G. birdiae cultivation in the future, mainly in the coast of the Northeast and Southeast regions of Brazil. Our projection is consistent with the assumption that ocean warming will expand warmer water species to formerly colder regions. Temperature and salinity were not the most limiting factors for G. birdiae cultivation, whereas high nitrate concentrations may limit it. Our data revealed that environmental suitability areas for G. birdiae cultivation in Brazil will not be negatively affected by climate change. The seaweed G. birdiae shows a great potential for being cultivated in the Brazilian coast in the present and future, which could be a relevant source of income for coastal communities.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES)—Finance Code 001.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Oceanography and Limnology, Federal University of Rio Grande Do Norte, Via Costeira, Praia de Mãe Luiza, S/N, Natal, RN, 59014-002, Brazil

    Marcelle Stephanne Barbosa-Silva, Henrique D. S. Borburema, Felipe de Oliveira Fernandes & Eliane Marinho-Soriano

  2. Department of Oceanography, Federal University of Pernambuco, Av. Arquitetura, Cidade Universitária, Recife, PE, 50740-550, Brazil

    Marcelo Francisco de Nóbrega

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  1. Marcelle Stephanne Barbosa-Silva
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  2. Henrique D. S. Borburema
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  4. Marcelo Francisco de Nóbrega
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  5. Eliane Marinho-Soriano
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Contributions

M. S. Barbosa-Silva: Conceptualization; Design of the work; Acquisition; Analysis; and Interpretation of data; Writing—original draft. H. D. S. Borburema: Writing—original draft; Writing—review and editing. F. O. Fernandes: Writing—original draft, Writing—review and editing. M. F. Nóbrega: Acquisition; Analysis; and Interpretation of data; Writing—review and editing. E. Marinho-Soriano: Conceptualization; Design of the work; Interpretation of data; Supervision; Writing—review and editing. All authors approved the version to be published and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

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Correspondence to Marcelle Stephanne Barbosa-Silva.

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10811_2023_2920_MOESM1_ESM.pdf

Fig. S1 Line plot of Sensitivity vs 1- Specificity for species. Red line indicates the “fit” to the training data. Black line indicates the “fit” to random prediction. (PDF 145 KB)

Table S1 Occurrence records of Gracilaria birdiae. Coordinates are in decimal degrees. (PDF 112 KB)

10811_2023_2920_MOESM3_ESM.pdf

Table S2 Values of model evaluation statistics (AUC diff, AUC, and AIC) for all generated environmental suitability models for Gracilaria birdiae cultivation areas in Brazilian coast. AUC is the Area Under the ROC Curve and AIC is the Akaike Information Criterion. Model shown in bold was the selected one due to the highest and lowest AUC and AIC values, respectively. (PDF 91 KB)

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Barbosa-Silva, M.S., Borburema, H.D.S., Fernandes, F. et al. Projecting environmental suitability areas for the seaweed Gracilaria birdiae (Rhodophyta) in Brazil: Implications for the aquaculture pertaining to five environmentally crucial parameters. J Appl Phycol 35, 773–784 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10811-023-02920-5

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