Abstract
Popular hope theories treat hope as an expectancy-based construct, with individuals more hopeful the greater their perceived likelihood of success. Consequently, the distinction between hope and other expectancy-based concepts (e.g., optimism) is unclear. The present research aims to identify the unique nature of hope, suggesting hope is invoked in particular when expectations of positive outcomes are low. As long as there is a possibility of those outcomes eventuating, individuals highly invested in them are more likely to hope; but with greater probability hope tends to align with optimism. In Study 1, for supporters of bottom-tier football teams strongly invested in the hoped-for outcome of their team winning, hope’s relationship with likelihood was cubic, accelerating with mere possibility; contrastingly, for optimism the relationship was linear. Study 2 replicated these findings for voters’ hope in state election outcomes. Hope is distinct from optimism and positive expectation; hope is tapped into when odds are low yet individuals are highly invested in the outcome.
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Notes
In line with other writers’ warning against making data fit a pre-defined definition of hope (Tong et al. 2010), we will investigate how hope fits individuals’ actual usage of the term. However, the term hope is not precise; for example it is often used to express a wish or desire (e.g., I would hope so), or used in the ideological sense of “it is my hope”, rather than a goal focused, possible and meaningful hope. While hope can represent an objective assessment of hope (e.g., there is hope), this research focuses on the usages of hope whereby individuals are actively hoping. Actively hoping does not imply a sense of personal agency, in fact this research aims to show hope’s role when agency is limited, rather it suggests that individuals are the actor, they do the hoping and commit to a positive outlook. This is most typically represented in phrases such as “I am hopeful that…” or “I have hope that…”, which were therefore used in the present research. Also, while the hoped-for outcome can include the “amelioration of a dreaded outcome” (Lazarus, 1991, p.282, e.g., I am hopeful X does not occur), this paper focuses on positive goals (promotion goals; Higgins, 1997).
We focus on a goal specific optimism, or what Peterson (2000) terms little optimism. Little optimism reflects a specific positive expectation of a future outcome, whereas big optimism refers to more general expectations, in line with dispositional measures of optimism (Carver et al. 2010; Scheier and Carver 1985). Though argued as being separate but related constructs (Peterson, 2000), which has some support in the literature (Gyurcsik and Brawley 2001; Kluemper et al. 2009), little optimisms focus on specific outcomes and development through idiosyncratic experiences (Peterson, 2000), making it more appropriate for the specific outcomes in the current research.
As all games were at the home ground of the bottom tier side, the difference in personal investment could be due to more dedicated fans traveling to the opponent’s home ground.
Anecdotally, top-tier supporters often seemed bemused by the hope/optimism questions, arguing that hope and optimism were the same thing.
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Bury, S.M., Wenzel, M. & Woodyatt, L. Giving hope a sporting chance: Hope as distinct from optimism when events are possible but not probable. Motiv Emot 40, 588–601 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-016-9560-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-016-9560-z