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Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills

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Abstract

This paper presents the use of tsunami evacuation drills within a coastal community in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) to better understand evacuation behaviors and thus to improve tsunami evacuation preparedness and resilience. Evacuees’ spatial trajectory data were collected by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) embedded in mobile devices. Based on the empirical trajectory data, probability functions were employed to model people’s walking speed during the evacuation drills. An Evacuation Hiking Function (EHF) was established to depict the speed–slope relationship and to inform evacuation modeling and planning. The regression analysis showed that evacuees’ speed was significantly negatively associated with slope, time spent during evacuation, rough terrain surface, walking at night, and distance to destination. We also demonstrated the impacts of milling time on mortality rate based on participants’ empirical evacuation behaviors and a state-of-the-art CSZ tsunami inundation model. Post-drill surveys revealed the importance of the drill as an educational and assessment tool. The results of this study can be used for public education, evacuation plan assessment, and evacuation simulation models. The drill procedures, designs, and the use of technology in data collection provide evidence-driven solutions to tsunami preparedness and inspire the use of drills in other types of natural disasters such as wildfires, hurricanes, volcanoes, and flooding.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the funding support from the Oregon Sea Grant program #NA140AR4170064 and the National Science Foundation through grants: #1563618, #1826407, #1902888, \(\#\)1952792, \(\#\)2044098 \(\#\)2052930, and \(\#\)2103713. Any opinions, findings, and conclusion or recommendations expressed in this research are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the funding agencies. The authors are also grateful to the generous support and collaborations from Oregon Parks and Recreation Department, the Hatfield Marine Science Center (HMSC) to conduct the drills at the South Beach State Park, Newport, OR and use the HMSC facility for the night drills. We are also thankful to each and every drill participant for their contributions in particular the group of local junior high school students, their participation has provided a great example on how K-12 students’ risk perceptions can be changed through evacuation drills.

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  1. School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA

    Chen Chen, Alireza Mostafizi, Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox

  2. School of Public Policy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA

    Lori Cramer

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  1. Chen Chen
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Correspondence to Haizhong Wang.

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This project was approved by the Oregon State University Human Research Protection Program (HRPP) and Institutional Review Board (IRB) and follows the regulations to protect participants, with projects reference number 6779 and 7349.

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Chen, C., Mostafizi, A., Wang, H. et al. Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills. Nat Hazards 112, 845–871 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05208-y

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