Skip to main content
Log in

Decomposing political advertising effects on vote choices

  • Published:
Public Choice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper studies the channels through which political television advertising influences individuals' voting decisions. Scholars are interested to learn whether advertising primarily persuades people to change their choices of candidates or mobilizes people to vote. I find that advertising does both: about 60% to 70% of advertising's effect is persuasion, and 30% to 40% of it is mobilization. Advertising's effects are stronger on those who did not plan to vote for a major-party candidate. To decompose the impact into its components, the present paper estimates a multinomial probit model that permits analysis of decisions of turnout and candidate choice jointly in a Markov chain framework. In contrast to most studies that estimate the effects of aggregated exposure to advertising on voters' choices on Election Day, I study how advertising influences peoples' monthly voting intentions leading up to Election Day. In the context of the 2008 presidential election, the magnitude of the advertising effect is not large enough to overcome John McCain's significant deficit, but it potentially could have changed the outcomes of other close elections such as those in 2000 and 2016.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. From the Center for Responsive Politics, a charitable organization that follows money in politics.

  2. Based on Federal Election Commission data, 41% of campaign expenditure went to the media in 2008; about 58% did so in 2012 and 2016.

  3. Media spending is estimated from the costs of TV advertisements taken from the Wisconsin Advertising Project and the Wesleyan Media Project.

  4. In my sample, very few voters choose a minor-party candidate. If respondents did not choose a major-party candidate, they usually did not vote at all.

  5. One standard deviation of advertising exposure corresponds to approximately 4000 rating points, where one rating point represents exposure to advertising by 1% of the voting age population in the relevant media market.

  6. The model readily can accommodate additional choices such as splitting Neither into two options: voting for a minor party candidate and not voting. However, expanding the choice set expands the number of observations required to estimate the model precisely. Most people who chose Neither did not vote. Focusing on the competition between the two major-party candidates who placed virtually all of the TV advertising is the primary objective of this paper.

  7. The 2004 decision is a proxy for the August 2008 decision. I discuss the implications in the Sect. 5.

  8. Whether or not the variations in survey completion time are correlated with other campaign activities is difficult to ascertain. In the supplementary materials, I show that the time required for survey completion is not easy to predict from observable variables.

  9. Since the integral of the choice probability does not have a closed form solution, the estimation is performed by simulation (Train 2009) using the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane algorithm implemented in Stata. I limit the number of alternatives to three to minimize the dimensions of the covariance matrix (Ω).

  10. Let \({P}_{j}\) be the probability of choosing \(j\) and \(A\) be advertising exposure. We know that \({P}_{D}+{P}_{R}+{P}_{N}=1\). Total differentiation of the equation with respect to \(A\) yields the required relationship.

  11. The estimated response rate is 43%.

  12. Some states do not allow citizens to register immediately before Election Day. For example, voters must register 30 days prior to elections in Texas.

  13. John McCain secured enough delegates in March 2008 to win his party’s nomination. Republican advertising subsided afterward. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in a tight nomination race until June 7th, when Clinton conceded. After June 7th, TV advertising resumed; the ads almost exclusively supported McCain and Obama.

  14. More details on advertising volume are in the supplementary materials online.

  15. The distribution for November wave is similar. However, in November, everyone had decided on Election Day. Therefore, I use the four weeks before Election Day as the exposure window.

  16. For additional exploration of the relationship between time to complete surveys, demographic characteristics, and turnout, see the discussion in the supplementary materials online.

  17. The estimated coefficients of the individual characteristics and candidate-time-specific dummies are reported in the supplementary materials online.

  18. The numerical results are reported in the supplementary materials online.

  19. The full election results are available in the supplementary materials online.

  20. The marginal effects in the table are the estimates of Eq. 3, which are computed from Eq. 4 using the vote shares listed in the table.

  21. For the complete election results, see supplementary materials online.

  22. I multiply \({M}_{Rs}\) by 4 when considering 4000 rating points.

  23. The four states are Michigan (16 electoral votes), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10).

  24. Full results and discussion appear in the supplementary materials online.

References

  • Achen, C. H. (2006). Expressive Bayesian voters, their turnout decisions, and double Probit: Empirical implications of a theoretical model. Unpublished manuscript. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.

  • Ackerberg, D. A. (2001). Empirically distinguishing informative and prestige effects of advertising. The RAND Journal of Economics, 32(2), 316–333.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aldrich, J. H. (1993). Rational choice and turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 37(1), 246–278.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashworth, S., & Clinton, J. D. (2007). Does advertising exposure affect turnout? Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 2(1), 27–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brennan, G., & Lomasky, L. (1989). Large numbers, small costs: The uneasy foundations of democratic rule. In G. Brennan & L. Lomasky (Eds.), Politics and process: New essays in democratic thought (pp. 42–59). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Brennan, G., & Lomasky, L. (1993). Democracy and decision: The pure theory of electoral preference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Caplan, B. (2006). The myth of the rational voter: Why democracies choose bad policies. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox, G. W., & Munger, M. C. (1989). Closeness, expenditures, and turnout in the 1988 US House elections. American Political Science Review, 83(1), 217–231.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper & Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edlin, A., Gelman, A., & Kaplan, N. (2007). Voting as a rational choice: Why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others. Rationality and Society, 19(3), 293–314.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feddersen, T., & Sandroni, A. (2006). A theory of participation in elections. American Economic Review, 96(4), 1271–1282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, J. A., & Fiorina, M. P. (1974). The paradox of not voting: A decision theoretic analysis. American Political Science Review, 68(2), 525–536.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, J. A., & Fiorina, M. P. (1975). Closeness counts only in horseshoes and dancing. American Political Science Review, 69(3), 920–925.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franz, M. M., & Ridout, T. N. (2007). Does political advertising persuade? Political Behavior, 29(4), 465–491.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franz, M. M., & Ridout, T. N. (2010). Political advertising and persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. American Politics Research, 38(2), 303–329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, P., Franz, M. M., & Goldstein, K. (2004). Campaign advertising and democratic citizenship. American Journal of Political Science, 48(4), 723–741.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerber, A. S., Gimpel, J. G., Green, D. P., & Shaw, D. R. (2011). How large and long-lasting are the persuasive effects of televised campaign ads? Results from a randomized field experiment. American Political Science Review, 105, 135–150.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, K., & Freedman, P. (2000). New evidence for new arguments: Money and advertising in the 1996 Senate elections. Journal of Politics, 62(04), 1087–1108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, K., & Freedman, P. (2002). Campaign advertising and voter turnout: New evidence for a stimulation effect. Journal of Politics, 64(03), 721–740.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, K., Niebler, S., Neiheisel, J., & Holleque, M. (2011). Presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial advertising, 2008. Combined File. Initial release. Madison, WI: The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project, the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

  • Gordon, B. R., & Hartmann, W. R. (2013). Advertising effects in presidential elections. Marketing Science, 32(1), 19–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grier, K. B. (1989). Campaign spending and Senate elections, 1978–84. Public Choice, 63(3), 201–219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hastie, R., & Park, B. (1986). The relationship between memory and judgment depends on whether the judgment task is memory-based or online. Psychological Review, 93(3), 258–268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill, S. J., Lo, J., Vavreck, L., & Zaller, J. (2013). How quickly we forget: The duration of persuasion effects from mass communication. Political Communication, 30(4), 521–547.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hillygus, D. S. (2005). Campaign effects and the dynamics of turnout intention in election 2000. Journal of Politics, 67(1), 50–68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hillygus, D. S., & Shields, T. G. (2008). The persuadable voter: Wedge issues in presidential campaigns. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Holbrook, T. M. (1994). Campaigns, national conditions, and US presidential elections. American Journal of Political Science, 38(4), 973–998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holbrook, T. M. (1996). Do campaigns matter? Volume 1 of contemporary American politics. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, G. A., & Arceneaux, K. (2007). Identifying the persuasive effects of presidential advertising. American Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 957–977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krasno, J. S., & Green, D. P. (2008). Do televised presidential ads increase voter turnout? Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Politics, 70(01), 245–261.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levitt, S. D. (1994). Using repeat challengers to estimate the effect of campaign spending on election outcomes in the U.S. House. Journal of Political Economy, 102(4), 777–798.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lott, J. R., Jr. (1991). Does additional campaign spending really hurt incumbents?: The theoretical importance of past investments in political brand name. Public Choice, 72(1), 87–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovett, M., & Peress, M. (2015). Targeting political advertising on television. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 10(3), 391–432.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsusaka, J. G. (1995). Explaining voter turnout patterns: An information theory. Public Choice, 84(1–2), 91–117.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mueller, D. C. (1986). Rational egoism versus adaptive egoism as fundamental postulate for a descriptive theory of human behavior. Public Choice, 51(1), 3–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mueller, D. C. (2003). Public Choice III. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mueller, D. C., & Stratmann, T. (1994). Informative and persuasive campaigning. Public Choice, 81(1/2), 55–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson, P. (1974). Advertising as information. Journal of Political Economy, 82(4), 729–754.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson, P. (1976). Political information. Journal of Law and Economics, 19(2), 315–336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Riker, W. H., & Ordeshook, P. C. (1968). A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review, 62(1), 25–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Riker, W. H., & Ordeshook, P. C. (1973). Introduction to positive political theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shachar, R. (2009). The political participation puzzle and marketing. Journal of Marketing Research, 46(6), 798–815.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shachar, R., & Nalebuff, B. (1999). Follow the leader: Theory and evidence on political participation. American Economic Review, 89(3), 525–547.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, D. R. (1999). The effect of TV ads and candidate appearances on statewide presidential votes, 1988–96. American Political Science Review, 93(2), 345–361.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spenkuch, J. L., & Toniatti, D. (2018). Political advertising and election results. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(4), 1981–2036.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stanford University & the University of Michigan. (2008). The American National Election Studies (www.electionstudies.org). 2008–2009 Panel Study.

  • Train, K. (2009). Discrete choice methods with simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tullock, G. (1967). Toward a mathematics of politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Urban, C., & Niebler, S. (2014). Dollars on the sidewalk: Should U.S. presidential candidates advertise in uncontested states? American Journal of Political Science, 58(2), 322–336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaller, J. R., & Feldman, S. (1992). A simple theory of the survey response: Answering questions versus revealing preferences. American Journal of Political Science, 36(3), 579–616.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaller, J. R. (1992). The nature and origins of mass opinion. Cambridge studies in public opinion and political psychology, Cambridge University Press. Cambridge Books Online.

Download references

Acknowledgements

I benefited from the valuable insights of editor Pete Leeson, two anonymous reviewers, Barry Burden, Kenneth Hendricks, Alan Sorensen, Ilia Murtazashvili, Van Pham, Lourenço Paz, Chris Taber, Bradley Jones, Samantha Vortherms, and participants of various workshops at the UW-Madison, UW-Whitewater, Baylor University, and the participants of the 2018 Public Choice Society Annual Meetings. I thank Scott Althaus for generously sharing his zip code data. The advertising data were obtained from a project of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project includes media tracking data from TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group in Washington, D.C. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. All remaining errors are my own.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wilson Law.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 77 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Law, W. Decomposing political advertising effects on vote choices. Public Choice 188, 525–547 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-020-00849-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-020-00849-8

Keywords

JEL Classification

Navigation