Abstract
In order to estimate the impact factor value for a journal in Dentistry, two sets of variables were considered in this study: the first takes in the longitudinal behavior of the process specified in the slope and intercept of the straight line fitted to the trend of the last years, whereas the second considers the percentage of review papers published each year and the adhesion degree of the journal to ICMJE guidelines. The final estimated model showed a high determination coefficient (99.3%) and its performance was tested on a new set of journals randomly sampled from the list of journal citation reports.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anscombe, F. J. (1948). The transformation of Poisson. Binomial and negative-binomial data. Biometrika, 35, 246–254.
Ayaz, S., Masood, N., & Islam, M. A. (2018). Predicting scientific impact based on h-index. Scientometrics, 114(3), 993–1010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2618-1.
Chen, M., Zhao, M. H., & Kallenberg, C. G. (2011). The impact factor of rheumatology journals: An analysis of 2008 and the recent 10 years. Rheumatology International, 31(12), 1611–1615. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00296-010-1541-z.
Cheng, K. L., Dodson, T. H., Egbert, M. A., & Susarla, S. M. (2017). Which factors affect citation Rates in the oral and maxillofacial surgery literature? Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, 75, 1313–1318. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278239117303610?via%3Dihub.
Chew, M., Villanueva, E. V. & Van Der Weyden, M. B. (2007). Life and times of the impact factor: retrospective analysis of trends for seven medical journals (1994–2005) and their Editors’ views. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 100(3), 142–150. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1809163/.
Contreras, C., Edwards, G., & Mizala, A. (2006). The current impact factor and the long-term impact of scientific journals by discipline: A logistic diffusion model estimation. Scientometrics, 69(3), 689–696. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-006-0165-2.
Falagas, M. E. & Zouglakis, G. M. (2006). Trends in the impact factor of scientific journals. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 81(10), 1401–1402. https://search.proquest.com/docview/216868735/12959745A4AB4D7CPQ/19?accountid=14542.
Li, X., Wu, Q., & Liu, Y. (2017). A quantitative analysis of researcher citation personal display considering disciplinary differences and influence factors. Scientometrics, 113(2), 1093–1112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2501-0.
López-Abente, G., & Muñoz-Tinoco, C. (2005). Time trends in the impact factor of public health journals. BMC Public Health, 5, 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-5-24.
Low, W. Y., Ng, K. H., Kabir, M. A., Koh, A. P., & Sinnasamy, J. (2014). Trend and impact of international collaboration in clinical medicine papers published in Malaysia. Scientometrics, 98(2), 1521–1533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-013-1121-6.
Park, S. (2015). The R&D logic model: Does it really work? An empirical verification using successive binary logistic regression models. Scientometrics, 105(3), 1399–1439. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1764-6.
Qian, Y., Rong, W., Jiang, N., Tang, J., & Xiong, Z. (2017). Citation regression analysis of computer science publications in different ranking categories and subfields. Scientometrics, 110(3), 1351–1374. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-016-2235-4.
Smith, D. R. (2008). Citation analysis and impact factor trends of 5 core journals in occupational medicine, 1985–2006. Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health, 63(3), 114–122. https://search.proquest.com/docview/201150096/6D830AD0522B4C17PQ/3?accountid=14542.
Valderrama, P., Escabias, M., Jiménez-Contreras, E., Rodríguez-Archilla, A., & Valderrama, M. J. (2018). Proposal of a stochastic model to determine the bibliometric variables influencing the quality of a journal: Application to the field of dentistry. Scientometrics, 115(2), 1087–1095. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-018-2707-9.
Valderrama, P., Escabias, M., Jiménez-Contreras, E., Valderrama, M. J., & Baca, P. (2017). Bibliometric variables determining the quality of a dentistry journal. In Skiadas, C. H. (ed.) Proceedings of the 17th Conference of the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Society (pp. 825–831).
Yu, L., & Yu, H. (2016). Does the average JIF percentile make a difference? Scientometrics, 109(3), 1979–1987. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-016-2156-2.
Yu, T., Yu, G., Li, P. Y., & Wang, L. (2014). Citation impact prediction for scientific papers using stepwise regression analysis. Scientometrics, 101(2), 1233–1252. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-014-1279-6.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Valderrama, P., Escabias, M., Jiménez-Contreras, E. et al. A mixed longitudinal and cross-sectional model to forecast the journal impact factor in the field of Dentistry. Scientometrics 116, 1203–1212 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-018-2801-z
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-018-2801-z