Abstract
Set-point theory is the main research paradigm in the field of subjective well-being (SWB). It has been extended and refined for 30 years to take in new results. The central plank of the theory is that adult set-points do not change, except temporarily in the face of major life events. There was always some ‘discordant data’, including evidence that some events are so tragic (e.g. the death of one’s child) that people never regain their set-point. It was possible to dismiss these events as ‘exceptions’ and maintain the theory. However, several new findings are emerging, which cannot be dismissed as ‘exceptions’ and which appear to require substantial revisions or replacement of set-point theory. Many of these findings are based on the German Socio-Economic Panel Survey (SOEP 1984-), which provides the longest available time series on life satisfaction. Despite its centrality, the concept of the set-point is often not precisely defined. In this paper three alternative working definitions are offered. Depending on which definition is used, it is found that over 20 years 14–30% of German panel members recorded large and apparently permanent changes in their set-points. Changes of this magnitude are not compatible with set-point theory as currently understood. The challenge for SWB researchers now is to develop a theory which can account for change as well as stability.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
This causation has always been open to dispute. People who separate and remain separated, or who are always single, almost certainly have different ‘starting’ characteristics and tastes from people who remain married.
Their N was just 29.
This point is noted by Lykken (2000) but has been ignored by many other investigators in their commentaries on set-point theory.
Like some other researchers we prefer not to use the 1984 data on life satisfaction. It has been shown that life satisfaction scores were ‘inflated’ that year by respondents giving their first interview (Frijters et al. 2004). We will also not use 2005 life satisfaction data due to the risk of correlations with the personality traits of E and N being inflated by contemporaneous measurement. For example, there is some risk that the correlation between E and life satisfaction in 2005 would be inflated by contemporaneous measurement.
Ten items were included in 1990 and 1995 and then nine in 2004. The item dropped in 2004 related to the importance of having a wide circle of friends, which loaded on the altruism factor.
The presence of statistically significant time invariant omitted factors—and hence the need to include them in predictions of Life Satisfaction1985-1989—is inferred from repeated errors in predicting the annual life satisfaction of panel members. The final estimate of Life Satisfaction1985-1989 for each individual was the sum of the effects of NEO-AC + plus the effects of standard demographic variables (gender, age etc.) + the effects of omitted time invariant factors.
Note that the year preceding the relevant 5-year period is included.
These standard deviations refer to 5-year averages of the life satisfaction scale. One year standard deviations are around 1.7–1.8.
These designations are admittedly not precise. Some people could perhaps pursue career success and material goals in a non-competitive way, and others might pursue (say) family goals in a competitive zero sum manner.
References
Andrews, F. M., & Withey, S. B. (1976). Social Indicators of Well-Being. New York: Plenum.
Argyle, M. (2001). The Psychology of Happiness. New York: Routledge.
Brickman, P. D., & Campbell, D. T. (1971). Hedonic relativism and planning the good society. In M. H. Appley (Ed.), Adaptation Level Theory. New York: Academic Press.
Brickman, P. D., Coates, D., & Janoff-Bulmann, R. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 917–927.
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., & Rodgers, W. R. (1976). The Quality of American Life. New York: Sage.
Clark, A. E., Diener, E., Georgellis, Y., & Lucas, R. E. (2008). Lags and leads in life satisfaction: A test of the baseline hypothesis. Economic Journal, 118, 222–243.
Clark, A. E., Georgellis, Y., Lucas, R. E., & Diener, E. (2004). Unemployment alters the set point for life satisfaction. Psychological Science, 15, 8–13.
Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1980). Influences of extraversion and neuroticism on subjective well-being. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 668–678.
Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1991). NEO PI-R. Odessa, Flde: PAR.
Cummins, R. A. (1995). On the trail of the gold standard for life satisfaction. Social Indicators Research, 35, 179–200.
Davidson, R. J. (1992). Emotion and affective style: Hemispheric substrates. Psychological Science, 3, 39–43.
Davidson, R. J. (2002). Anxiety and affective style: Role of prefrontal cortex and amygdale. Biological Psychiatry, 51, 68–80.
Diener, E., & Fujita, F. (1995). Resources, personal strivings and subjective well-being: A nomothetic and ideographic approach. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 926–935.
Diener, E., & Lucas, R. E. (1999). Personality and subjective well-being. In D. Kahneman, E. Diener, & N. Schwarz (Eds.), Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology (pp. 213–229). New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.
Diener, E., Lucas, R. E., & Scollon, C. (2006). Beyond the hedonic treadmill: Revising the adaptation theory of well-being. Psychological Science, 61, 305–314.
Diener, E., Suh, E. M., Lucas, R. E., & Smith, H. L. (1999). Subjective well-being: Three decades of progress. Psychological Bulletin, 25, 276–302.
Easterlin, R. A. (1974). Does economic growth improve the human lot? Some empirical evidence. In P. A. David & M. W. Reder (Eds.), Nations and households in economic growth (pp. 89–125). New York: Academic Press.
Easterlin, R. A. (2005). Building a better theory of well-being. In L. Bruni & P. Porta (Eds.), Economics and happiness: Framing the analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Eysenck, H. J., & Eysenck, S. G. B. (1969). Personality structure and measurement. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.
Fordyce, M. W. (1988). A review of research on the happiness measures’. Social Indicators Research, 20, 353–382.
Frank, R. H. (1985). The demand for unobservable and other nonpositional goods. American Economic Review, 75, 279–301.
Frederick, S., & Loewenstein, G. (1999). Hedonic adaptation. In D. Kahneman, E. Diener, & N. Schwarz (Eds.), Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology (pp. 302–329). New York: Russell Sage.
Frijters, P., Haisken-Denew, J. P., & Shields, M. A. (2004). Money does matter! Evidence from increasing real incomes and life satisfaction in East Germany following reunification. American Economic Review, 94, 730–741.
Fujita, F., & Diener, E. (2005). Life satisfaction set-point: Stability and change. Journal of Personality and Social Psycholgy, 88, 158–164.
Gerlitz, J.-Y. & Schupp, J. (2005). Zur Erhebung der Big-Five-basierten Persoenlichkeitsmerk-male im SOEP. www.diw.de/deutsche/produkte/publikationen/researchnotes/docs/papers/rn4.pdf.
Gottman, J. M. (1996). What Predicts Divorce? The Relationship Between Marital Processes and Marital Outcomes. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Headey, B. W. (2006). Subjective well-being: Revisions to dynamic equilibrium theory using national panel data and panel regression methods. Social Indicators Research, 79, 369–403.
Headey, B. W. (2008a). The set-point theory of well-being: Negative results and consequent revisions. Social Indicators Research, 85, 389–403.
Headey, B. W. (2008b). Life goals matter to happiness: A revision of set-point theory. Social Indicators Research, 86, 213–231.
Headey, B. W., & Wearing, A. J. (1989). Personality, life events and subjective well-being: Towards a dynamic equilibrium model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 731–739.
Headey, B. W., & Wearing, A. J. (1992). Understanding happiness: A theory of subjective well-being. Melbourne: Longman Cheshire.
Hirsch, F. (1976). Social limits to growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Huppert, F. (2005a). Positive mental health in individuals and populations. In F. Huppert, N. Baylis, & B. Keverne (Eds.), The science of well-being (pp. 307–340). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Huppert, F. (2005). Positive mental health in individuals and populations. In F. Huppert, N. Baylis & B. Keverne (eds), The science of well-being (pp. 255–262). European Psychologist, 3.
Kluckhohn, F. R., & Strodbeck, F. L. (1961). Variations in value orientations. Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson.
Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Lakatos, I. (1970). Criticism and the growth of knowledge. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Larsen, R. J. (1992). Neuroticism and selective encoding and recall of symptoms: Evidence from a combined concurrent-retrospective study. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 489–498.
Lucas, R. E., & Baird, B. M. (2004). Extraversion and emotional reactivity. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 86, 473–485.
Lucas, R. E., Clark, A. E., Georgellis, Y., & Diener, E. (2003). Reexamining adaptation and the set point model of happiness: Reactions to change in marital status. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 84, 527–539.
Lykken, D. (1999). Happiness: What studies on twins show us about nature, nurture and the happiness set-point. New York: Golden Books.
Lykken, D. (2000). Happiness: The nature and nurture of joy and contentment. New York: St Martin’s Press.
Lykken, D., & Tellegen, A. (1996). Happiness is a stochastic phenomenon. Psychological Science, 7, 186–189.
Magnus, K., Diener, E., Fujita, F., & Pavot, W. (1993). Extraversion and neuroticism as predictors of objective life events: A longitudinal analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 1046–1053.
Mehnert, T., Kraus, H. H., Nadler, R., & Boyd, M. (1990). Correlates of life satisfaction in those with a disabling condition. Rehabilitation Psychology, 35, 3–17.
Michalos, A. C. (1985). Multiple discrepancies theory. Social Indicators Research, 16, 347–413.
Nickerson, C., Schwarz, N., Diener, E., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Zeroing in on the dark side of the American dream: A closer look at the negative consequences of the goal for financial success. Psychogical Science, 14, 531–536.
Peterson, C. (1999). Personal control and well-being. In D. Kahneman, E. Diener, & N. Schwarz (Eds.), Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology (pp. 288–301). New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Roberts, B. W., Walton, K., & Viechtbauer, W. (2006). Patterns of mean-level change in personality traits across the life course: A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. Psychological Bulletin, 132, 3–27.
Rotter, J. B. (1966). Generalised expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. Psychological Monographs, 80, Whole No. 609.
Sanders, M. R. (1996). Every parent: A positive approach to children’s behaviour. Sydney: Addison- Wesley.
Scitovsky, T. (1976). The Joyless Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Scollon, C. N., & Diener, E. (2006). Love, work and changes in extraversion and neuroticism over time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 91, 1152–1165.
Seligman, M. E. P. (2002). Authentic happiness :Using the new positive psychology to realise your potential for lasting fulfillment. New York: Free Press.
Sheldon, K. M., & Lyubomirsky, S. (2004). Achieving sustainable new happiness: Prospects, practices and prescriptions. In P. A. Linley & S. Joseph (Eds.), Positive psychology in practice (pp. 127–145). New York: John Wiley.
Thoits, P. A., & Hewitt, L. N. (2001). Volunteer work and well-being. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 42, 115–131.
Veenhoven, R. (1993). Happiness in nations, subjective appreciation of life in 56 nations, 1946–92. Rotterdam: Erasmus University Press.
Wagner, G. G., Frick, J. R., & Schupp, J. (2007). Enhancing the power of the German socio-economic panel study (SOEP)—Evolution, scope and enhancements. Schmoeller’s Jahrbuch, 127, 139–169.
Watson, N. & Wooden, M. (2004). Assessing the quality of the HILDA Survey Wave 2 Data. HILDA Technical Paper, 5/04.
Wengle, H. (1986). The psychology of cosmetic surgery: A critical overview of the literature 1960–1982. Part 1. Annals of Plastic Surgery, 16, 435–443.
Wessman, A. E., & Ricks, D. F. (1966). Mood and personality. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
Wortman, C. B., & Silver, R. C. (1987). Coping with irrevocable loss. In G. R. Vanderbos & B. K. Bryant (Eds.), Cataclysms, crises, catastrophes: Psychology in action. Washington, DC: APA.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
I would like to thank Gert G. Wagner, Director of the German Socio-Economic Panel at the German Institute for Economic Research, and Alex Wearing, my long term collaborator, for discussions and suggestions on which this paper is partly based.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Headey, B. The Set Point Theory of Well-Being Has Serious Flaws: On the Eve of a Scientific Revolution?. Soc Indic Res 97, 7–21 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-009-9559-x
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-009-9559-x