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Prediction of potentially suitable distribution areas of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China against the background of climate change

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Abstract

With traditional Chinese medicine playing an increasingly important role in human society, the scarcity of wild resources has become a key constraint to the development of the industry. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the patterns and changes in potentially suitable distribution areas for Thesium chinense Turcz. in China, in the present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the predicted regions of high, medium, and low potential fitness zones were 6.19 × 104, 150.99 × 104, and 155.61 × 104 km2. The highly suitable areas were primarily found in Shandong and Shanxi Provinces. Furthermore, we found its relatively stable habitat was mainly distributed across South Central Shanxi, Eastern Gansu, and Midwest Guizhou. An analysis of the transfer of masses revealed that the potential habitat of the plant migrated in a northwesterly direction under various climatic conditions.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Numbers: 82104323 and 32170378]; National Key Technologies R & D Program for Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine [Grant Numbers: 2017YFC1701300 and 2017YFC1700706]; Xi’an Science and Technology Project (20NYYF0057); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [Grant Numbers: GK202103065 and GK201806006]; Shaanxi Provincial Key R & D Program (2021SF-383, 2020LSFP2-21 and 2018FP2-26); Research Project on Postgraduate Education and Teaching Reform of Shaanxi Normal University (GERP-20-41); and Youth Innovation Team Construction Scientific Research Project of Shaanxi Education Department(21JP027).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest China, The Key Laboratory of Medicinal Resources and Natural Pharmaceutical Chemistry, College of Life Sciences, The Ministry of Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, 710119, China

    Peng Gao, He Si, Qian Zhao, Gang Li, Xinfei Zhang, Minghao Guo, Shiqiang Wang, Junfeng Niu & Zhezhi Wang

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  1. Peng Gao
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  2. He Si
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  3. Qian Zhao
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  4. Gang Li
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  5. Xinfei Zhang
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  6. Minghao Guo
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  7. Shiqiang Wang
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  8. Junfeng Niu
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  9. Zhezhi Wang
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study concept and design. Conceptualization: PG, HS and JN; Methodology: PG and QZ; Writing-Original Draft: PG; Formal analysis: PG and JN; Resources: PG and SW; Data Curation: MG; Investigation: PG, HS, SW and JN; Funding acquisition: JN, SW and ZW; Writing- Reviewing and Editing: JN and ZW. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Junfeng Niu or Zhezhi Wang.

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Communicated by Ling Zhang.

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Gao, P., Si, H., Zhao, Q. et al. Prediction of potentially suitable distribution areas of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China against the background of climate change. Plant Ecol 224, 449–461 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-023-01312-6

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