Abstract
Persistent pressures that relate to nonstationary climate variations and land use/cover changes (LULCC) keep affecting water resources and their associated environmental services with increasing impact trends worldwide. Lake Marmara, located in Gediz River Basin in Western Turkey, is among the environmentally degraded water resources while officially announced as a priority wetland due to historical habitats and ecosystem functions. The region is remarkably under threat, especially after the construction of a reservoir on upstream reach that feeds the lake and the combined impacts of both climate and LULCC. These issues restrict local communities' access to fundamental ecosystem services for their survivability. The study investigates the effects of LULCC in the example of Lake Marmara in an environmental scope and provides water balance modelling that is utilized to help examine hydrologic conditions of the lake under climate change. The study evaluates future hydrologic conditions with RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, while combining future LULCC and water demand projections. These above mentioned various pressures are incorporated into modelling scenarios to evaluate the state of the lake for the year of 2050 under different circumstances. The study revealed that in every scenario analysed, the lake dries out and is incapable of maintaining the required water amount to sustain its wildlife and ecosystem. As a result, some new water allocation policies and strategies are essential for the survival of the Lake Marmara System.
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The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
This manuscript is dedicated to the loving memory of Prof. Dr. Nilgün HARMANCIOGLU, to whom this special issue is dedicated for. As her colleagues and students, we are still inspired by the discipline, guidance and kindness she showed throughout her life. The OPTIMA project (INCO-CT-2004-509091, Grant Agreement No: 509091) is funded, in part, by the European Commission, DG Research, under the FW6 INCO-MPC Program. The MARA-MEDITERRA project (2121 Call 2021 Section 1 Water RIA) is funded by the Horizon 2020 European Union Funding for Research & Innovation under the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by M. C. Gunacti, G. Onusluel Gul and C. P. Cetinkaya. The first draft of the manuscript was written by A. Gul and F. Barbaros. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript, read and approved the final manuscript.
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Gunacti, M.C., Gul, G.O., Cetinkaya, C.P. et al. Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System. Water Resour Manage 37, 2643–2656 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8