Abstract
Climate change affects air quality and people’s health. Therefore, accurate prediction of future climate change is of great significance for human beings to better adapt and mitigate climate change. Using the projection simulation dataset of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, the future climate change in the Sahara region under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) is analyzed. The results show that annual and seasonal average surface air temperature in the Sahara region will continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century relative to the baseline period 1995–2014 if greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue increasing. Under the four SSPs scenarios, the warming in the Sahara region will be more pronounced than in the whole world through the twenty-first century. The annual maximum temperature (TX), the annual minimum temperature (TN), the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (TX 35), and the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 40 °C (TX 40) in the Sahara region will continue to increase until the end of the twenty-first century under the four scenarios. The results of climate change prediction can provide scientific reference for climate policy-making.
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Extra data is available by emailing to guoqingchun@lcu.edu.cn in on reasonable request.
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Funding
This work was funded by the National Natural Science Fund of China (41572150), Shandong Province Higher Educational Humanities and Social Science Fund (J18RA196), and State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Found (SKLLQG1907).
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Q.G. and Z.H. analyzed the data and wrote the manuscript. Z.W. analyzed the data. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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All data were obtained with the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The data in this article are obtained from an open database of the IPCC AR6 (links are provided in the resources section).These can be accessible locally for educational purposes.
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Guo, Q., He, Z. & Wang, Z. Long-term projection of future climate change over the twenty-first century in the Sahara region in Africa under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 22319–22329 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23813-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23813-z