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A novel method for forecasting time series based on fuzzy logic and visibility graph

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Abstract

Time series attracts much attention for its remarkable forecasting potential. This paper discusses how fuzzy logic improves accuracy when forecasting time series using visibility graph and presents a novel method to make more accurate predictions. In the proposed method, historical data is firstly converted into a visibility graph. Then, the strategy of link prediction is utilized to preliminarily forecast the future data. Eventually, the future data is revised based on fuzzy logic. To demonstrate the performance, the proposed method is applied to forecast Construction Cost Index, Taiwan Stock Index and student enrollments. The results show that fuzzy logic is able to improve the accuracy by designing appropriate fuzzy rules. In addition, through comparison, it is proved that our method has high flexibility and predictability. It is expected that our work will not only make contributions to the theoretical study of time series forecasting, but also be beneficial to practical areas such as economy and engineering by providing more accurate predictions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors greatly appreciate the reviews’ suggestions and the editor’s encouragement. The work is partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61573290, 61503237).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Fundamental and Frontier Science, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 610054, China

    Rong Zhang & Yong Deng

  2. School of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China

    Rong Zhang & Yong Deng

  3. Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems (BBISS), Economics of Sustainable Built Environment (ESBE) Lab, School of Building Construction and School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 280 Ferst Drive, 30332-0680, Atlanta, GA, Georgia

    Baabak Ashuri

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  1. Rong Zhang
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  2. Baabak Ashuri
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Correspondence to Yong Deng.

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Zhang, R., Ashuri, B. & Deng, Y. A novel method for forecasting time series based on fuzzy logic and visibility graph. Adv Data Anal Classif 11, 759–783 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11634-017-0300-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11634-017-0300-3

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