Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The transition to lower fertility in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: evidence from recent surveys

  • Published:
Journal of Population Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Using recent data from three national-level surveys conducted in 1995, 2000, and 2004, we provide evidence that Palestinian fertility rates in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, historically among the highest in the world, began to slow especially in the West Bank, but stalled in Gaza during the recent Intifada. The TFR in the early 2000s was 4.6 per woman, down from 6.2 a decade earlier. However, most of the decline in Gaza’s fertility appears to have taken place during the early 1990s, before the onset of the second Intifada. In Gaza, the TFR decreased from 7.4 to 5.7 during the 1990s, but changed only slightly to 5.6 during the second Intifada period. Surprisingly, contraceptive prevalence has not changed during these years, and the transition to lower fertility was mainly due to changes in nuptiality. Demand for children remains high, although there is evidence of unmet need for contraception. The continuing conflict and worsening economic situation provide clues to the persistence of high fertility among Palestinian women.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The preparatory level of education consists of the 6th to 9th grades of school.

References

  • Arnold, F., & Blanc, A. (1990). Fertility levels and trends. DHS comparative studies No.2. Columbia, MD: Institute for Resource Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blacker, J. (1994). Some thoughts on the evidence of fertility decline in Eastern and Southern Africa. Population and Development Review, 20(1), 200–205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bledsoe, C. H., Johnson-Kuhn, J. A., & Haaga, J. G. (Eds.). (1999). Critical perspectives on schooling and fertility in the developing world. Washington, DC: National Research Council. National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. (2003). Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences. Population Studies, 57(3), 321–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. (2006). The causes of stalling fertility transition. Studies in Family Planning, 37(1), 1–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J., Odile, F., & Lesthaeghe, R. (1990). The proximate determinants of fertility in sub-Saharan Afrida. In G. T. F. Acsadi, G. Johnson-Acsadi, & R. A. Bulatao (Eds.), Population growth and reproduction in sub-Saharan Africa: Technical analyses of fertility and its consequences (pp. 133–142). Washington, DC: The World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J., & Watkins, S. C. (1996). Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review, 22(4), 639–682.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J. C. (1982). Theory of fertility decline. London: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J. C., & Caldwell, P. (1987). The cultural context of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 13(3), 409–437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casterline, J., & Sinding, S. (2000). Unmet need for family planning in developing countries and implications for population policy. Population and Development Review, 26(4), 691–723.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleland, J. (1994). Different pathways to demographic transition. In F. Graham-Smith (Ed.), Population—the complex reality: A report of the summit of the world’s scientific academies (pp. 229–250). London: The Royal Society.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cleland, J., & Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view. Population Studies, 41(1), 5–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coale, A. J. (1973). The demographic transition. International Population Conference, Liège 1973, vol. 1. Liège: IUSSP.

  • Cochrane, S. H. (1979). Fertility and education: What do we really know?. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Courbage, Y. (1994). Fertility transition in Syria: From implicit population policy to explicit economic crisis. International Family Planning Perspectives, 20(4), 142–146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Courbage, Y. (1995). The population of Palestine. Population (English Selection), 7, 210–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Courbage, Y. (2005). Demography in Palestine on the eve of the 21st Century. Paper presented at the Center for Research on Population and Health Seminar Series, American University of Beirut, Lebanon. Feb 24. Unpublished manuscript.

  • Della Pergola, S. (2001). Demography in Israel/Palestine: trends, prospects, policy implications. Paper presented at the IUSSP General Population Conference, Salvador, Brazil. http://www.iussp.org/Brazil2001/s60/S64_02_dellapergola.pdf.

  • Fargues, P. (2000). Protracted national conflict and fertility change among Palestinians and Israelis. Population and Development Review, 26(3), 441–482.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giacaman, R., Abdul-Rahim, H. F., & Wick, L. (2003). Health sector reform in the occupied Palestinian territories (OPT): Targeting the forest or the trees. Health Policy and Planning, 18(1), 59–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldscheider, C. (1991). The demographic embeddedness of the Arab-Jewish conflict in Israeli society. In B. Reich & G. Kieval (Eds.), Israeli politics in the 1990s: Key domestic and foreign policy factors (pp. 111–132). Greenwood, CT: Westport Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Graham, E. (1995). Singapore in the 1990s. Can population policies reverse the demographic transition? Applied Geography, 15(3), 219–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill, A. G., Clark, C. J., Lubbad, I., & Bruderlein, C. (2006). Hope and despair over health in Gaza. British Medical Journal, 333, 845–846.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirschman, C. (1994). Why fertility changes. Annual Review of Sociology, 20, 203–233.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ilan, S. (2005). Demographically correct. Jerusalem: Haaretz Newspaper, 7 June.

  • Johnson-Hanks, J. (2006). Uncertain honor: Modern motherhood in an African crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Joseph, S. (1996). Patriarchy and development in the Arab world. Gender and Development, 4(2), 14–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khawaja, M. (2000). The recent rise in Palestinian fertility: Permanent or transient? Population Studies, 54(3), 331–346.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khawaja, M. (2004). The extraordinary decline of infant and childhood mortality among Palestinian refugees. Social Science and Medicine, 58(3), 463–470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khawaja, M., & Randall, S. (2006). The intifada, Palestinian fertility and women’s education. Genus, LXII, 21–52.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin, C., & Juarez, F. T. (1995). The impact of women’s education on fertility in Latin America: Searching for explanations. International Family Planning Perspectives, 21(2), 52–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions. Demography, 34(4), 443–454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (1992). Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility. Population and Development Review, 18(4), 599–630.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Obermeyer, C. M. (1992). Islam, women and politics: The demography of Arab countries. Population and Development Review, 18(1), 33–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). (2006). Revised emergency appeal: Consolidated appeals process. Jerusalem: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). (1997). The demographic survey in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: Final results. Ramallah: PCBS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). (1998). Health survey in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, 1996. Ramallah: PCBS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). (2000). Health survey 2000, main findings. Ramallah: PCBS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). (2005). Demographic and health survey, 2004: main findings. Ramallah: PCBS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). (2007). Poverty in the Palestinian Territory, 2006. Ramallah: PCBS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). (2008). Palestine in figures, 2007. Ramallah: PCBS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedersen, J., Randall, S., & Khawaja, M. (Eds.). (2001). Growing fast: The Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Oslo: Fafo Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rashad, H. (2000). Demographic transition in Arab countries: A new perspective. Journal of Population Research, 17(1), 83–101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roudi, F. (2001). Final peace in the Middle East hinges on refugee population. Population Today, 29(3), 1–2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sabatello, E. (1983). The population of the administered territories: Some demographic trends and implications. Jerusalem: The West Bank Data Base Project.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sayigh, Y. (2007). Inducing a failed state in Palestine. Survival, 49(3), 7–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott, A. P. (1996). Marriage and childbearing under occupation: Demographic trends in the Gaza Strip, 1960s–1980s. Paper presented at the IUSSP Arab Regional Population Conference, Cairo, Egypt. Unpublished manuscript.

  • Semyonov, M., & Lewin-Epstein, N. (1987). Hewers of wood and drawers of water: Noncitizen Arabs in the Israeli labor market. Ithaca, NY: ILR Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sontag, D. (2000). Gramped Gaza multiplies at unrivaled rate. New York: New York Times, Feb 24.

  • Tabutin, D., & Schoumaker, B. (2005). The demography of the Arab world and the Middle East from the 1950s to the 2000s: A survey of changes and statistical assessment. Population-E, 60(5–6), 505–588.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tamari, S. (1993). The transformation of Palestinian society: Fragmentation and occupation. In M. Heiberg & G. Ovensen (Eds.), Palestinian society in Gaza, West Bank and Arab Jerusalem: A survey of living conditions (pp. 21–33). Oslo: Fafo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westoff, C. F. (1988). The potential demand for family planning: A new measure of unmet need and estimates for five Latin American countries. International Family Planning Perspectives, 14(2), 45–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank. (2007). Movement and access restrictions in the West Bank: Uncertainty and inefficiency in the Palestinian economy. World Bank Technical Team. http://www.worldbank.org/ps. Accessed 30 May 2007.

  • Zimmerman, B., Seid, R., & Wise, M. L. (2006). The million person gap: The Arab population in the West Bank and Gaza. Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 65. Bar-Ilan University. http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/MSPS65.pdf.

Download references

Acknowledgments

A previous version of this paper was presented at the Population Association of America Annual meeting, New York, March 28–31, 2007.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Research on Population and Health, American University of Beirut, Van Dyck Hall, Beirut, Lebanon

    Marwan Khawaja, Shireen Assaf & Yara Jarallah

Authors
  1. Marwan Khawaja
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Shireen Assaf
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yara Jarallah
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marwan Khawaja.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Khawaja, M., Assaf, S. & Jarallah, Y. The transition to lower fertility in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: evidence from recent surveys. J Pop Research 26, 153–174 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-009-9009-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-009-9009-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation