Abstract
Objective
To develop and validate a bedside dengue severity score in children less than 12 years for predicting severe dengue disease.
Methods
We carried out an analysis of data on the clinical and laboratory parameters of patients with confirmed dengue, hospitalized in October, 2019 at our center. A comprehensive patient’s score was developed. Predictive models for severity were built using a forward step-wise method. This model was validated on the data of 312 children with dengue admitted during September- October, 2021.
Results
Severe dengue was predicted by the dengue severity score with a sensitivity of 86.75% (95% CI 77.52%–93.19%), specificity of 98.25% (95% CI 95.56–99.52%), a positive predictive value of 95.34% (95% CI 92.18%–97.26%) and a negative predictive value of 94.74% (95% CI 87.16%–97.95%). The overall predictive accuracy was 95.2% (95% CI 92.19%–97.28%).
Conclusion
The proposed bedside dengue severity scoring system was found to have good validity. Validating the score in different settings and patient populations is suggested.
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Contributions
VG: conceptualized the study, was involved in collecting data, analyzing data, manuscript preparation and case management; SVL: was involved in case management and manuscript preparation; SS: was involved in case management and manuscript preparation; VP: was involved in data collection, management of cases and manuscript preparation; SK: was involved in manuscript preparation, critical review of manuscript and data analysis. All authors approved the final version of manuscript, and are accountable for all aspects related to the study.
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EIC, Madras Medical College; No. 15112021 dated Nov 3, 2021.
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Additional material related to the study is available with the online version at www.indianpediatrics.net
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Gayathri, V., Lakshmi, S.V., Murugan, S.S. et al. Development and Validation of a Bedside Dengue Severity Score for Predicting Severe Dengue in Children. Indian Pediatr 60, 359–363 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13312-023-2880-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13312-023-2880-7