Uncertainty techniques in expert system software

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Abstract

In this paper, approaches for dealing with uncertainty as implemented in two specific expert system tools are analysed with the aim of comparing the theories that underly the two approaches. The comparison undertaken shows that not only are their many conceptual problems that require consideration and understanding before selecting an expert system tool, but also the uncertainty techniques as implemented in two specific tools do not follow strictly the theories on which they are based.

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William G.W. Magill is an Honorary Research Associate in the Department of Economics in the University of Tasmania, Australia. Together with over 20 years teaching and research experience at that university, he has held faculty positions at the Australian National University and the University of Oregon. His main teaching and research interests have been in business statistics, marketing and economics. Currently he is engaged in both private and university research which is principally directed towards marketing and knowledge-based decision support systems. He has been a co-author in articles published in Economics Letters, Economic Record, Economia Internazionale, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, and The International Journal of Accounting.

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Stewart A. Leech is a Reader in the Department of Accounting and Finance in the University of Tasmania, Australia. He has held faculty positions at the University of Melbourne and the University of Sydney, and visiting scholar appointments at U.C.L.A., the University of Minnesota and the City University Business School, London. His primary teaching interest is management information systems. His current research interests include knowledge-based decision support systems in accounting and auditing. He has published in a range of journals including Abacus, International Journal of Accounting, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, and Accounting and Business Research. He has co-authored two books: Introduction to Accounting Method (Longman Cheshire 1984) and The TAC System (Longman Cheshire 1985).

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