Renewable energy strategies for sustainable development
Introduction
Sustainable Energy Development Strategies typically involve three major technological changes: energy savings on the demand side [1], [2], efficiency improvements in the energy production [3], [4], and replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy [5], [6]. Consequently, large-scale renewable energy implementation plans must include strategies for integrating renewable sources in coherent energy systems influenced by energy savings and efficiency measures [7], [8], [9], [10].
First, the major challenge is to expand the amount of renewable energy in the supply system. Renewable energy is considered an important resource in many countries around the world [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18], but as illustrated in Fig. 1, on a global scale less than 15% of primary energy supply is renewable energy, and the major part is hydro power and wood fuels in developing countries. Renewable sources, such as wind and solar, only constitute a very small share of the total supply. However, the potential is substantial. And in some regions and countries, the share of renewable energy has grown substantially during the last couple of decades. Two major challenges of renewable energy strategies for sustainable development can be identified. One challenge is to integrate a high share of intermittent resources into the energy system, especially the electricity supply [19], [20]. The other is to include the transportation sector in the strategies [21], [22]. Based on the case of Denmark, this paper describes the challenges and discusses the potential solutions to these challenges.
In Denmark, savings and efficiency improvements have been important parts of the energy policy since the first oil crisis in 1973. Hence, by means of energy conservation and expansion of Combined Heat and Power production (CHP) and district heating, Denmark has been able to maintain the same primary fuel consumption for a period of more than 30 years in spite of about 70% increase in GDP. Moreover, 14% of fossil fuels have been replaced by renewable energy. In the same period, both transportation and electricity consumption as well as the heated space area have increased substantially.
Thus, Denmark is an example of how sustainable development strategies constituted by a combination of savings, efficiency improvements and renewables can be implemented. Consequently, Denmark is now facing the two problems of integrating the high share of intermittent electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and including the transportation sector in the future strategies. Hence, reaching this stage of making sustainable energy strategies the issue is not only a matter of savings, efficiency improvements and renewables. It also becomes a matter of introducing and adding flexible energy technologies and designing integrated energy system solutions. Such technological changes are necessary in order to bring about further sustainable development as illustrated in Fig. 2.
The Danish Energy Agency has estimated the realistic biomass potential for energy purposes to 20–25% of the present total primary energy supply. Meanwhile, Denmark has a great potential for other sorts of renewable energy, especially wind power. Therefore, Denmark is in many ways a typical example of the situation in many countries: the transportation sector is totally fuelled by oil, the biomass potential is not big enough to replace fossil fuels, but the potential of intermittent renewable sources is substantial.
Based on the case of Denmark, this paper discusses the problems and perspectives of converting present energy systems into a 100% renewable energy system.
Section snippets
Potential renewable energy sources in Denmark
The potential of renewable energy sources in Denmark was estimated by the Danish Energy Agency in 1996 as part of the data which provides the basis of the Danish Government energy plan “Energy 21”[23]. The estimate, which is shown in Table 1, dates back 10 years, and today, it seems that some potential is underestimated. Especially the offshore wind potential, which is very dependent on the technological development, is considered higher today and will increase in the future along with the
Reference scenario
Danish energy supply is traditionally based on fossil fuels. Denmark has very little hydro power potential and during the 60 and 70 s, the electricity supply was dominated by large steam turbines located near the big cities. However, after the first oil crisis, Denmark has become a leading country in terms of implementing CHP, energy conservation and renewable energy. Consequently, the Danish energy system has been changed from a situation in 1972, in which 92% out of a total of 833 PJ was oil,
Methodology
The aim of the analysis is to evaluate whether a 100% renewable energy system is a possibility for Denmark and to identify key technological changes and suitable implementation strategies.
All changes have been calculated by use of the EnergyPLAN energy system analysis model. Consequently, the energy balance of each system has been calculated for each hour of the year taking into account the intermittent nature of RES, limitations in capacities of flexible technologies as well as demands for
Results
First, the consequences of each of the three sustainable technological changes have been analysed as well as the combination of the three. The results are shown in Fig. 6 in terms of primary energy consumption.
Fig. 6 shows that the tendency is an increase in the fuel consumption rather than a decrease. This is due to the fact that such technological changes lead to a substantial increase in the electricity excess production. More CHP, better efficiencies, less demand (savings) and more
Conclusion
Sustainable Energy Development Strategies typically involve three major technological changes: energy savings on the demand side, efficiency improvements in the energy production, and replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy. Consequently, large-scale renewable energy implementation plans must include strategies for integrating renewable sources in coherent energy systems influenced by energy savings and efficiency measures.
However, when reaching a high share of
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