Elsevier

Energy Policy

Volume 52, January 2013, Pages 10-24
Energy Policy

Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.001Get rights and content

Abstract

Achieving long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, such as the UK's legally-binding target of reducing its emissions by 80% by 2050, will require a transition in systems for meeting and shaping energy service demands, involving radical substitution to low-carbon supply technologies and improvements in end-use energy efficiency. This paper describes the development and high-level analysis of a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity system, explaining key features of the core pathways developed and the distinctiveness and value of the approach. The pathways use an ‘action space’ concept to explore the dynamic interactions between choices made by actors, which are influenced by the competing governance ‘framings’ or ‘logics’ that different actors pursue. The paper sets out three core transition pathways – Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers, in which market, government and civil society logics respectively dominate. It summarises the key technological and institutional changes in these pathways, and the roles of actors in bringing these about. This leads to an identification of the key risks to the realisation of each of the pathways, and of the challenges for individuals, businesses, social movements and policy-makers in taking action to bring them about and sustain them.

Highlights

► Development of a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity system. ► Action space to explore the dynamic interactions between choices made by actors. ► Three core pathways in which market, government and civil society logics dominate. ► Key technological and institutional changes, and the roles of actors in pathways. ► Challenges for different actors in realising pathways.

Introduction

In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act, which set a legally-binding goal to reduce the UK's greenhouse gas emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. It also established an institutional framework for setting intermediate carbon budgets and holding the UK Government to account for measures to achieve them. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), consisting of experts in climate science, technology and economics, was set up to advise the Government and recommend the carbon budgets, starting with the first three budget periods 2008–12, 2013–17 and 2018–22. Based on technical and economic modelling and analysis, the Committee's scenarios for achieving these budgets focussed on the UK moving to a ‘highly-electric’ future, in which electricity, generated from low-carbon sources, is increasingly used as the main energy carrier for heating and transport, as well as for other power and lighting services. Despite the fundamental transformation of the UK energy system that this implies, most UK scenario work (Committee on Climate Change (CCC), 2008, Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), 2010a, Skea et al., 2011) has focussed on the rates of adoption of low-carbon technologies needed and the additional energy system costs involved, with relatively little discussion of the motivations of the different actors involved, the interactions between them and the choices and actions needed to ‘get from here to there’.

This paper describes research developing scenarios or transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity future by 2050 that focuses on the actions of the actors, both large and small, and the governance arrangements that frame the choices involved. This is part of a large research project, involving engineers, social scientists and policy analysts from nine UK universities, that is analysing the technical and economic feasibility and social and environmental potential and acceptability of these pathways, as reported in the companion papers in this special issue. The approach to developing transition pathways, described in detail elsewhere (Foxon et al., 2010), applies recent research using a multi-level perspective for analysing transitions in socio-technical systems, such as energy systems (Geels, 2002, Geels, 2005, Geels, forthcoming, Grin et al., 2010), and related work on a coevolutionary framework for analysing low-carbon transitions (Foxon, 2011). Transition pathways arise through the dynamic interaction of technological and social factors at and between different levels, mediated by the actions of actors within an ‘action space’. Three key types of actor influence change: government actors; market actors, such as large energy firms; and civil society actors, such as community and environmental groups. We argue that these different actors have fundamentally different ‘logics’ or framings of the key energy challenges. Hence, the logic or framing that dominates a pathway will have a crucial influence on energy choices made and the shape of any future low-carbon energy system. We develop and analyse three core transition pathways, named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers, in which the logic or framing of market actors, government actors, and civil society actors respectively dominate.

The pathways thus aim to inform thinking by policy-makers, energy firms and civil society actors by showing how different framings of the issues could lead to radically different low-carbon energy futures. This suggests the need for a much deeper debate on what kind of energy future we, as a society, would like to see. The relative priorities and potential trade-offs between carbon reduction and other objectives, including maintaining energy security, contributing to economic prosperity and ensuring affordability of energy services, are then inherently political. The paper aims to contribute to this debate by examining how different framings and choices could lead to different outcomes, and highlighting the challenges that this poses for different stakeholders.

Section 2 of the paper outlines the approach taken to developing transition pathways, in relation to the multi-level perspective and action space. Section 3 describes the methodology followed in applying this approach to UK electricity systems, and how the pathways inform and are informed by the other parts of the analysis in the research project. Section 4 sets the context for our transition pathways by analysing recent UK energy policy developments, identifying a move away from a purely market-oriented governance framework to one in which central government is beginning to play a more active role, though still with a limited role for civil society actors. Section 5 describes our core transition pathways for a UK low carbon electric future, highlighting the key technological and institutional changes in these pathways, and the roles of actors in bringing these about. Section 6 discusses the challenges for individuals, businesses, social movements and policy-makers in taking appropriate action to bring them about. Section 7 concludes by discussing the distinctive features of the transition pathways approach.

Section snippets

Approach to developing low-carbon transition pathways

In framing the challenge of moving to a sustainable low carbon energy system, whilst achieving other objectives of maintaining security of energy supply and affordability of energy services, governments have begun to use the language of transitions. In the foreword to the UK Government's July 2009 Low Carbon Transition Plan, Ed Miliband, the then Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change (and now Leader of the opposition Labour Party), stated, “The transition to a low-carbon economy will

Methodology for developing and analysing transition pathways for UK electricity system

We have defined three core transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity system, in which one of each of the three competing logics dominates. Thus, we have a market-led pathway, named Market Rules, a government-led pathway, Central Co-ordination, and a civil society-led pathway, Thousand Flowers. Outline narratives or storylines were developed for each of these pathways, based on a critical review of UK and international energy scenarios and approaches to scenario building (Hughes and

Current governance challenges for UK energy systems

The starting point for developing our transition pathway narratives is to describe the current system processes in relation to the framing of alternative governance arrangements used to define the pathways. So, we begin by setting out current governance challenges for UK energy systems using the multi-level and action space concepts. This enables the identification of current patterns of activity that may continue or be amplified into the future, and also key challenges and stresses that may

Core transition pathways for UK electricity system

We have developed three core transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity system, in each of which one of the three competing logics dominates (Fig. 3).

We now briefly summarise how this logic plays out for each pathway,3 key institutional changes and roles of actors, and key risks to the realisation of each pathway. Table 1, Table 2, Table 3 set out key characteristics for each pathway, based on the second

Challenges for different actors in realising the pathways

Scenarios or pathways to a low carbon energy system future can give the impression that a low carbon future will be relatively easy to achieve, providing that the ‘right’ choices are made. As noted in the papers by Hughes (2009) and Hughes et al. (this issue), there are dangers in invoking disembodied ‘high-level trends’ or ‘deus ex machina’ interventions that save the day to ensure that scenarios reach their intended target. In line with the arguments put forward in that paper, our work seeks

Discussion and conclusions

This paper has reported ongoing work developing and analysing transition pathways to a low carbon electricity system in the UK. As noted above, this work aims to ‘open up’ the discussion space relating to different pathways to a low carbon electricity future, as well as analysing particular technical, social, economic and environmental challenges that would be raised in realising any of these pathways. Hence, throughout the course of development and analysis of the pathways, we have engaged in

Acknowledgements

This paper draws on research undertaken as part of a major research grant jointly by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and E.ON UK (the integrated energy company) to study the role of electricity within the context of ‘Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy’ [Grant EP/F022832/1]. We are grateful to these sponsors, as well as for the interchanges with the main UK academic partners at the University of Bath (Prof. Geoffrey Hammond), University of Cardiff

References (56)

  • J. Wangel

    Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development

    Technological Forecasting and Social Change

    (2011)
  • Arapostathis, S., Carlsson-Hyslop, A., Pearson, P.J.G., Thornton, J., Gradillas, M., Laczay, S., Wallis, S. Governing...
  • Barnacle, M., Robertson, E., Galloway, S., Barton J., Ault, G. Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for...
  • Barton, J., Huang, S., Infield, D., Leach, M., Ogunkunle, D., Thomson, M. The evolution of electricity demand and the...
  • F. Berkhout

    Normative expectations in systems innovation

    Technology Analysis & Strategic Management

    (2006)
  • Boston, A. Delivering a secure electricity supply on a low carbon pathway. Energy Policy – special issue on Transition...
  • Committee on Climate Change (CCC), 2008. Building a Low-carbon Economy—the UK's Contribution to Tackling Climate...
  • Committee on Climate Change (CCC), 2010. The Fourth Carbon Budget—Reducing Emissions through the 2020s, December 2010....
  • Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), 2010a. 2050 Pathways Analysis, July 2010. DECC, London,...
  • Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)

    Electricity Market Reform—Consultation Document

    (2010)
  • Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)

    The Green Deal: A summary of the Government's proposals, December 2010

    (2010)
  • Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), 2011a. Planning our Electric Future: A White Paper for Secure,...
  • Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), 2011b. UK Renewable Energy Roadmap. DECC, London, July 2011,...
  • Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)

    Estimated Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Energy Prices and Bills

    (2011)
  • Elzen, B., Geels, F.W., Hofman, P.S., 2002. Sociotechnical Scenarios (STSc): Development and Evaluation of a New...
  • Elzen, B., Hofman, P.S., 2007. Transition Paths Towards a Sustainable Electricity System: An Exploration Using...
  • Foxon, T.J. Pearson, P.J., Arapostathis, S., Carlsson-Hyslop, A., Thornton, J.. Branching points for transition...
  • Cited by (0)

    View full text