Population change and distribution in Papua New Guinea: an epidemiological approach

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The distribution of population in Papua New Guinea is extremely uneven. Highlands valleys are densely populated, whilst lowlands areas have only sparse population—a difference which cannot be explained by any lack of potential for subsistence agriculture. Yet there is a greater number of different languages concentrated in Papua New Guinea than in any other similar area on earth, and some of these have persisted for over ten thousand years.

It is argued that malaria is the most important determinant of population distribution in Papua New Guinea. Diseases which have regulated population distribution in other parts of the world did not occur here before European contact either because of the lack of suitable hosts, or because the population was too sparse to support transmission. Regulation of population size in the lowlands has been density dependent and small populations have been in stable equilibrium between births and deaths. Population growth has been greatest in the highlands, where malaria has had least impact. The effects of malaria have been enhanced by the equatorial climate in the lowlands, by the presence of highly effective vectors, by the absence of the sickle-cell gene and by the poor nutritional status of the population.

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