Review of 62 risk analysis methodologies of industrial plants

Abstract

For about 10 years, many methodologies have been developed to undertake a risk analysis on an industrial plant. In this paper, 62 methodologies have been identified, these are separated into three different phases (identification, evaluation and hierarchisation). In order to understand their running, it seems necessary to examine the input data, methods used, obtained output data and to rank them in several classes. First, all the input data are grouped together into seven classes (plan or diagram, process and reaction, products, probability and frequency, policy, environment, text, and historical knowledge). Then, the methods are ranked in six classes based on the combination of four usual criteria (qualitative, quantitative, deterministic and probabilistic). And finally, the output data are classified into four classes (management, list, probabilistic and hierarchisation). This classification permits the appraisal of risk analysis methodologies. With the intention of understanding the running of these methodologies, the connections between the three defined previously criteria (determinist, probabilistic and determinist and probabilistic) are brought to the fore. Then the paper deals with the application fields and the main limitations of these methodologies. So the hierarchisation phase is discussed and the type of scale used. This paper highlights the difficulties in taking into account all risks for an industrial plant and suggests that there is not only one general method to deal with the problems of industrial risks.

Introduction

The industrial risk problem and the diversification of risk types have increased concurrently with industrial development. In the same time, the risk acceptability threshold of the population has decreased. In response to this preoccupation, competent authorities and industrialists have developed methodologies and tools for risk prevention and protection, as well as crisis management.

To cope up with major accidents, a previous analyses should be done. The forward-looking risk analysis permits an exhaustive identification of potential hazardous sources to prevent accident scenarios and to assess potential impact on human, environmental and equipment targets in order to propose prevention or protection (Lagadec, 1980). The risk analysis methodologies focuses on the main hazard sources. Two principal sources of risk can be brought to the fore: industrial establishment and transport of dangerous goods. These two types of sources are quite different. At first sight, the quantities involved are not really comparable, and the environment is unsettled for an industrial site whilst the opposite is true for the case of transport of dangerous goods.

So to analyse and to manage safety aspects, various approaches are proposed, they focus on organisational and technical features. Sixty-two risk analysis methodologies are set out in the following.