Scientific & TechnicalAvoiding the transposed conditional
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Cited by (73)
The strange persistence of (source) “identification” claims in forensic literature through descriptivism, diagnosticism and machinism
2022, Forensic Science International: SynergyCitation Excerpt :This point has been made repeatedly in forensic and legal literature since at least three decades now [103]. The point is most commonly known as the avoidance of the transposed conditional [45]. However, when taking a closer look, one can note a peculiarity in the way in which Smith and Neal state their framework.
What does a digital forensics opinion look like? A comparative study of digital forensics and forensic science reporting practices
2021, Science and JusticeCitation Excerpt :There are some risks with the SoS approach used in the DF reports that should be highlighted. First, when the evidence is presented in relation to a single hypothesis, the conclusion may be perceived as the probability that the hypothesis is true, known as the prosecutor’s fallacy [38] or the fallacy of transposed conditions [39]. Second, by presenting evidence in relation to a single hypothesis, the legal decision-maker may be misled to believe that the evidence has probative value, while an evaluation in the light of several competing hypotheses would show that it was neutral (not suitable to discriminate between propositions or a set of hypotheses) [40], as shown in the example above.
Structured decision making in investigations involving digital and multimedia evidence
2020, Forensic Science International: Digital InvestigationAge estimation of living persons: A coherent approach to inference and decision
2020, Statistics and Probability in Forensic AnthropologyDNA commission of the International society for forensic genetics: Assessing the value of forensic biological evidence - Guidelines highlighting the importance of propositions. Part II: Evaluation of biological traces considering activity level propositions
2020, Forensic Science International: GeneticsCitation Excerpt :Accordingly, a competing defence proposition is necessary. To reiterate, the scientist offers no opinion about whether a proposition such as “He handled the knife” or “He stabbed the victim” is true or not because this would fall foul of the prosecutor’s fallacy (probability of the hypothesis given the evidence [46,47]). Rather, the scientist’s role is restricted to assigning the value of the DNA evidence in light of these propositions.
Conclusions, reporting, and testimony
2019, Forensic Examination of Signatures