Biotic effects of climate change in urban environments: The case of the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Melbourne, Australia
Introduction
The construction of cities and the daily activities of their human inhabitants can have pronounced effects on the local climate. For example, the urban heat island effect (Manley, 1958) was first documented in the early 19th century by Howard (1833) following his observations that overnight minimum temperatures in central London were higher than in the surrounding countryside. The maximum difference in temperature between a large city and the surrounding rural area can be as much as 12 °C on calm, clear nights when the urban heat island effect is most pronounced (Oke, 1979, Landsberg, 1981). Urban environments can also have their own wind fields, increased cloudiness and rainfall, and enhanced thunderstorm activity (Landsberg, 1981, Bridgman et al., 1995, Changnon, 2001, Liu et al., 2002).
Climate change in urban areas is likely to affect the habitat available for plant and animal species, both indigenous and introduced. It may also lead to changes in the behavioural patterns of animals and the phenology of plants. For example, climatic warming resulting from extensive urban development near Basel, Switzerland is implicated in the local extinction of eight populations of the land snail Arianta arbustorum (Baur and Baur, 1993). The hatching success of the snail’s eggs decreases with exposure to temperatures of 22 °C and above, demonstrating one mechanism by which elevated urban temperatures can affect the distribution of species. In the early 1980s, magnolias bloomed two weeks earlier in central Washington, DC than in the surrounding suburbs (Landsberg, 1981), while plants as diverse as snowdrops and apple trees generally flower earlier in urban than in rural areas of central Europe (Roetzer et al., 2000).
The grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus), historically a warm temperate to tropical species, established a regular camp (colonial roost) at the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne in 1981 (Menkhorst and Dixon, 1985). Prior to this, the species was only an occasional visitor to Melbourne. The camp in the Fern Gully at the Gardens was apparently occupied year-round between December 1985 and March 2003 (Aston, 1987, Menkhorst, 1995), and represented the southernmost camp of any flying-fox species in the world (Tidemann, 1999). In this paper, we investigate: (a) whether Melbourne falls within the climatic range of camp sites of P. poliocephalus on the basis of long-term data; and (b) whether Melbourne has moved into the climatic range of the species as a result of urban development and human activities in the city. We discuss the implications of our study for the conservation of indigenous flora and fauna in urban environments.
Section snippets
Pteropus poliocephalus
Flying-foxes (Megachiroptera: Pteropodidae) are large bats that feed on fruit, nectar, pollen and other plant products, and navigate by sight rather than echolocation. P. poliocephalus is one of eight species of flying-fox known from Australia (Hall and Richards, 2000). It is listed as Threatened in Victoria, and Vulnerable in New South Wales and nationally (New South Wales Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995; Victoria Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act 1988; Environment Protection and
Bioclimatic analysis of camp sites
The BIOCLIM analysis of long-term climate data indicated that Melbourne is outside the climatic range of the other summer and winter camps of P. poliocephalus (Fig. 1(b) and (c)). Compared to the other summer camps, Melbourne is drier on an annual basis and receives less radiation per year and during the coldest quarter (Table 1). In the climatic space defined by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation at the summer camps (Fig. 2(a)), Melbourne is at the cooler, drier end of the
Climate change in Melbourne and climatic suitability for P. poliocephalus
The warming trend observed in Melbourne since the 1950s is likely to be the result of both a general warming trend observed across Australia (Torok and Nicholls, 1996) and an increase in the urban heat island effect with Melbourne’s increasing population (Torok et al., 2001, Lenten and Moosa, 2003). Using data from 149 weather stations located outside urban centres (i.e., towns with a population greater than 10,000), Torok and Nicholls (1996) calculated an upward trend in Australian-average
Acknowledgements
We are very grateful to John Nelson and Patrina Birt for providing information on the location of flying-fox camps, Janet Stein, Jane Elith and Jenny Kestevens for their assistance with BIOCLIM, and Jeannie Campbell for gathering elevation data for the flying-fox camps. We thank Tim Forster from the Bureau of Meteorology for providing weather data for the Melbourne Regional Office and Peter Symes for providing data on irrigation at the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. The following people
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