Will future climate change increase the risk of violating minimum flow and maximum temperature thresholds below dams in the Pacific Northwest?

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.07.001Get rights and content
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Highlights

  • Rivers of the Pacific Northwest, USA generate ~40% of the region's electricity while supporting cold-water salmonid populations.

  • Our ensemble projections of risk and duration of extreme high-temperature or low-flow events below reservoirs raise concerns about the ability of cold-water salmonids to persist.

  • Climate projections used hybrid (process-based and empirical) models of tailwater temperature and flow with 4-km downscaled CMIP5 climate drivers.

  • Using an empirical reservoir transform, we modeled equilibrium future temperatures, which showed an increase in phase shift and decrease in seasonal amplitude.

  • The risk of thermal exceedance was projected to increase by an average of 0.27 between late-spring and fall and average duration of events increased by 10.3.

  • We projected an increase of 0.07 in the average risk of below-threshold flows and average duration increased by 10.3 d increased by 4.6 d.

Abstract

Detecting and avoiding environmental thresholds that lead to catastrophic change in ecological communities is an important goal, and one that is especially challenging to address over broad geographic extents. Here, we conducted a regional-scale climate vulnerability assessment (RCVA) to quantify the risk of violating thermal and minimum-flow thresholds below reservoirs. Our analysis used hybrid (process-based and empirical) models of tailwater temperature and flow driven by 4-km downscaled CMIP5 climate projections. Downscaling employed a combination of process-based models, quantile mapping, and a non-linear ‘reservoir’ transform function. RCVA can be applied at regional scales without proprietary and data-intensive physical models of reservoir systems or ecological models of species that comprise tailwater communities. Using RCVA, we produced ensemble projections of risk and duration of extreme high-temperature or low-flow events below federal reservoirs in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. Bayesian modeling of simulated results allowed us to evaluate differences between risk under a future and baseline scenario relative to model uncertainties and to quantify uncertainty in modeled risks. Based on assumptions that historical patterns of reservoir dynamics and operation will continue, and that regulatory thresholds will not change, the risk of thermal exceedance was projected to increase by an average of 0.27 and extend into late-spring and fall (average change in duration of 10.3 d). For flow, RCVA projected an increase of 0.07 in the average risk below-thresholds flows, with an average increase in duration of 4.6 d. Both results raise concerns that cold-water salmonids of the PNW will be at increased risk under a future climate scenario.

Keywords

Thresholds
Thermal criteria
Minimum flow
Climate vulnerability assessment
Water standards
Seasonal risk assessment
Duration
Uncertainty

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