ResponseMethods estimating the prevalence of problem drug use
Section snippets
Back-projection
Hunt's paper is particularly notable for the use of what amounts to a simplified back-projection model, and indeed some years before modern formulations of the method were developed. Back-projection, or back-calculation, in essence is relatively straightforward. The method uses aggregate numbers of cases of an event, in this case aggregate drug treatment program data, and combines this with an estimate of the average time following commencement of heroin use people enter drug treatment to
Modern exercises in estimating drug use
One feature of the paper by Hunt that now would be regarded as a weakness is the use of a single analytical method applied to a single data source. In modern exercises aimed at estimating trends in drug use, it has become a consistent feature to use multiple data sources and differing analytical methods (Degenhardt et al., 2004). It is becomingly increasingly recognised that there simply is not a single data source or analytical method which will give the best estimates in an area of such great
Discussion
Reviewing historical papers such as the one by Hunt is interesting and important for a number of reasons. First, it is worth relearning that careful reanalysis of data with new or different analytical methods might provide novel insights. Hunt's paper challenged the notion of a single, synchronous nationwide heroin epidemic in the United States, and instead argued that heroin epidemics in smaller cities might be continuing to rise. It is all too easy when evaluating difficult issues such as
Acknowledgements
The National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research and The National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre are funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, and are affiliated with the Faculty of Medicine, The University of New South Wales.
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