A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.037

Energy Policy

Volume 116, May 2018, Pages 10-18

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.037 Get rights and content

Highlights

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Five modeling teams analyze India's transportation sector.
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Teams project transportation baseline energy consumption by 2050.
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We present emissions of CO₂ and PM_2.5 from India's road transport.
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Our study reveals important data gaps in India's transportation sector.

Abstract

This paper focuses on comparing the framework and projections of energy consumption and emissions from India's transportation sector up to 2050. To understand the role of road transport in energy demand and emissions, five modeling teams developed baseline projections for India's transportation sector as part of inter-model comparison exercise under the Sustainable Growth Working Group (SGWG) of the US-India Energy Dialog. Based on modeling results, we explore the developments in India's passenger and freight road transport, including changes in the modal shift and the resulting changes in energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions. We find significant differences in the base-year data and parameters for future projections, namely energy consumption by transport in general and by mode, service demand for passenger and freight transport. Variation in modeling assumptions across modeling teams reflects the difference in opinion among the different modeling teams which in turn reflects the underlying uncertainty with respect to key assumptions. We have identified several important data gaps in our knowledge about the development of the transportation sector in India. The results of this inter-model study can be used by Indian policy makers to set quantified targets in emission reductions from the transportation sector.

Introduction

The transportation sector in India plays an important role in economic growth, catering to passenger and freight transport demands, with infrastructure development improving connectivity to all regions. With increases in urban population, household incomes, and travel for various activities, the total volume of transport demand has also increased tremendously.

Currently, the road transportation sector contributes to about 3% of India's GDP (GOI, 2016b). In 2015, 210 million vehicles were registered in India (GOI, 2016b). Cities with a population over a million people account for about 32% of all registered vehicles. While the road vehicle fleet has been growing by 10% per year during the last decade, vehicle ownership in India is much lower than in developed countries. There were 167 vehicles of all types per 1000 people and only 19 passenger cars per 1000 people in India in 2015 (GOI, 2016b). In contrast, there are 500–700 vehicles and 300–400 cars per 1000 people in Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

Private car ownership will continue to grow with increases in personal income. For example, data from the Global Transportation Roadmap model, developed by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT, 2015), shows that vehicle ownership will increase from 0.02 vehicle/capita in 2010 to 0.23 vehicle/capita in 2050. The share of two-wheelers in the on-road fleet increased from 9% in 1951 to 74% in 2015, while the share of buses decreased significantly from 11% in 1951 to just 1% in 2015 (GOI, 2016a). Such factors as safety, time, cost, attitudes, and investment into public transportation are important for understanding the reasons to own personal vehicles in India (Verma, 2015).

The transportation demand will continue growing very fast. The National Transport Development Policy Committee (NTDPC) Planning Commission estimated that the freight demand would reach 13,000 billion tonne-kilometers in 2031–32, an increase by a factor of seven from 2000 billion tonne-kilometers in 2011–12. The passenger transport demand will increase to 169,000 billion passenger-kilometers in 2031–32 from about 10,000 billion passenger-kilometers in 2011–12 (GOI, 2014b). This growth in India's vehicle fleet has created and will continue to create significant problems in energy demand and exhaust emissions.

To understand the role of road transport in energy demand and emissions, five modeling teams – four from India and one from the United States – are developing baseline projections for India's transportation sector as a part of inter-model comparison exercise within the ambit of Sustainable Growth Working Group (SGWG), a joint India-USA platform hosted by the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog) in India. The choice of modeling teams was guided by their contribution and participation in the SGWG exercise. The five teams have been included in the SGWG exercise based on their expertise on energy modeling as well as energy policy analysis, and the teams are well cited for their work on energy and climate policy in India. Capability for energy modeling is very limited in developing countries, and though there are other strong modeling teams in India, our choice was constrained by their participation in the SGWG exercise which was voluntary. The SGWG platform is open to all modeling teams. In the future, as the number of Indian modeling teams on this platform grows, inter-model comparison exercises could include many more teams. We believe that this paper with contribution from four Indian modeling teams and the US modeling team is a very useful starting point on which future inter-model comparison exercises for energy policy analysis can be built. These projections explore how the developments in transportation will shape energy demand and emissions of CO₂ and PM_2.5. By using multiple models to explore these issues, this research aims to identify key areas of uncertainty, robust policy-relevant insights that emerge across teams and analyses, and important research needs in the transportation sector. The use of multiple models also provides a framework for comparing tools, making improvements to models, and clarifying which results may vary across different studies conducted by different institutions.

In this article, we analyze energy demand and emission trends from passenger vehicles (two-wheelers [2 W], three-wheelers [3 W], passenger cars, or light-duty vehicles [LDV], and buses [Bus]) and from freight transport (light heavy-duty trucks [LHDT], medium heavy-duty trucks [MHDT], and heavy heavy-duty trucks [HHDT]) under the reference scenario. In other words, we estimate trends in India's road transportation sector assuming no policy changes in the future.

The article is structured as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of historical energy consumption and emissions in the transportation sector in India. Section 3 describes the framework for the model comparison and key inputs. Next, we present the results of the model projections for energy consumption by types of vehicles, CO₂, and PM_2.5 emissions. Finally, we provide our conclusions for policy implications and discuss data gaps in transport modeling in India.

Section snippets

India transportation: energy consumption and emissions

Transport is the third-largest energy consumer in India after buildings and industry (IEA, 2015a). Energy consumption in the transportation sector is growing faster than in other sectors of the economy, and this growth is expected to continue. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that transport will consume 22% of India's energy in 2040 compared to 14% in 2013 (OECD/IEA, 2015).

The transportation sector in India consumes about 70% of diesel and 99.6% of petrol in the

Models used in the analysis

The five teams used a variety of models to project energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from road transport in India by 2050. The teams included the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Note that different kinds of models have respective strengths and weaknesses; for a

Energy consumption by transport

Because of the dramatic increases in the service demand, energy consumption grows substantially across projections. Overall transportation energy consumption is projected to increase by 4.1–6.1% per year through 2050, over a seven-fold increase relative to 2010.

Energy consumption by passenger vehicles increases by 3.7–5.5% per year; energy consumption for freight transport increases by 4.6–7.2% per year (Fig. 6). IRADe presented only total energy consumption by road transport without a

Discussion and policy implications

Our analysis represents one step in a longer-term collaboration between Indian and U.S. researchers to understand sustainable growth challenges and opportunities at the nexus of transportation and air pollution. The study brings together five modeling teams and allows us to capture key uncertainties and reveal important data gaps. This multi-model approach allows us to assess the robustness of key findings, which is not possible in studies by individual modeling teams. We believe that

Conclusions

This paper provides an inter-model comparison of baseline projections of energy consumption and emission estimates in the road transport sector to 2050. The five modeling teams project energy consumption to increase by 4.1–6.1% per year from 2010 to 2050. The growth in energy consumption by freight transport is faster than the increase in energy demand by passenger vehicles. A fast increase in energy demand from road transport will further exacerbate India's dependency on imported oil. The

Acknowledgment

The research was supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (contract DGG-4-42182-01), and the NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India), Government of India. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for the United States Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. The Indian modelling teams thank NITI Aayog (National Institution for

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¹: Present address: Clean Energy Ministerial, Paris, France.

²: Present address: Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.

View full text

A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050

Highlights

Abstract

Introduction

Section snippets

India transportation: energy consumption and emissions

Models used in the analysis

Energy consumption by transport

Discussion and policy implications

Conclusions

Acknowledgment

Energy Sustain. Dev.

Energy Econ.

Energy Policy

Energy Policy

Transp. Res. Part D: Transp. Environ.

Energy Policy

Energy

Transp. Policy

Transp. Res. Part D: Transp. Environ.

Energy Policy

Projections of Highway Vehicle Population, Energy Demand, and CO2 Emissions in India to 2040

A Study of the Autorickshaw Sector in Bangalore City - Suggestions for Improved Governance

National Air Quality Index. National Air Quality Index for 85 cities at 225 locations

Quality of life for all: a sustainable development framework. Technical Report

A Sustainable Development Framework for India's Climate Policy

International Energy Outlook

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

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Clim. Change

Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Statistics 2011-12

The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020

The Final Report of the Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth

India Transport Report. Moving India to 2032

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