Perspective
Energy saving in a hurry: A research agenda and guidelines to study European responses to the 2022–2023 energy crisis

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Abstract

This winter exceptionally high energy prices are forcing many householders and businesses in Europe to change the way they use energy. It is important to learn how their energy use changes over a short period of time, the effects of government actions, which policies work and which fail, and what trade-offs emerge. The digital society offers unique opportunities to collect quantitative and qualitative data and to learn about these changes while they happen. However, researchers are not used to planning and executing rapid research. We propose a research agenda and some guidelines and thoughts on practical aspects of executing research in a hurry. The frequency of energy shortages due to extreme weather events is likely to increase. Therefore, lessons from good research on coping strategies, and on the economic, social, and environmental implications of this are vital for better policymaking. As researchers, we should try to follow Winston Churchill's advice ‘never to waste a good crisis’.

Introduction

In 2021 40% of EU natural gas was imported from Russia with variation between countries: Austria imported 86% of its natural gas from Russia, Finland 75%, Greece 64%, Poland 50%, Germany 49%, and Italy 38% [1]. The decline in Russian gas exports to Europe following its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 created a natural gas shortage and there have been price surges across the continent. Increasing demand for energy since COVID-19 restrictions ended has added to price rises and as a result Europe is facing record natural gas prices which are also feeding into high electricity prices in many countries [2]. In winter 2022/23 households across the EU are experiencing a surge in energy prices, with the impact on poor households being most significant [3]. Many vulnerable households are struggling to maintain thermal comfort and some have to choose between energy and other essentials including food and health. Businesses are suffering too.

Governments are already implementing coping strategies that target both energy supply and demand, including, for example, sourcing natural gas from elsewhere than Russia, switching fuels, spending hundreds of billions of Euros on subsidies, price caps, relief packages for vulnerable households, and reducing taxation on energy [4]. Measures to reduce or reshape demand, include energy rationing for industry, mandatory reduction of peak consumption, information and advice campaigns, and two-tier tariffs. The European Union has adopted a regulation to reduce gas demand voluntarily by 15% between August 2022 and March 2023 (EU Regulation 2022/1369). For a review of energy saving policies across Europe see [5].

This is not the first large-scale energy crisis that requires a significant reduction in energy consumption – oil, gas, or electricity – with relatively little notice and a short time to adapt. Such events are well-documented in the literature on “saving energy in a hurry” [6], [7], [8], [9]. The 2005 IEA guide for electricity saving in a hurry was last updated in 2011, and depicts lessons learnt across different countries and energy systems, including Japan, New Zealand and Brazil.

From a research point of view, the 2022/3 energy crisis and the constraints that many consumers (households and businesses alike) are experiencing this winter, present opportunities to study demand reduction and flexibility in a digital society, from the point of view of users, in a comparative manner (between and within nations), and to learn about energy resilience, coping strategies, as well as societal hardship. As most natural gas in Europe is used within buildings, rather than in transport or energy-intensive industry, this is our focus.

It is too early for reliable energy consumption statistics for winter 2022/23, but UK figures on residential energy use in the third quarter of 2022 show total temperature-adjusted residential energy use was down by 13% compared with the same quarter the previous year, likely due in part to price increases [11].

The availability of more granular geographical consumption data as well as access to mobile phones and social networks are assets that were not widely available several years ago, and could be utilized to collect both quantitative and qualitative data about and from users on the events while they happen, rather than in hindsight. Reporting on decisions after the event has ended is often shaped by the consequences, and therefore may be biased [10]. Analysing data collected in real-time could yield insights and lessons that help improve societal resilience, and prepare better for climate-induced or other shortages. However, researchers do not typically undertake research at such short notice, and often lack the resources to do so. Thus, this commentary first sets out a research agenda in more detail, followed by practical suggestions for doing research in a hurry, building on lessons from COVID-19. It considers the risks as well as benefits, and which elements of research practice are most amenable to acceleration.

Section snippets

Research agenda

The aim of this proposed research agenda is to highlight sets of questions focused on understanding in detail how households and organisations respond to energy price rises and/or shortages in the winter of 2022/23, the social, economic and environmental consequences, and which behaviours, practices and policies most effectively mitigated these. Detailed example research questions are suggested below, separately for households, organisations and policy.

Doing research in a hurry

There is a long-recognised tension between speed and quality in research. Research done too quickly, without adequate attention to existing knowledge, methodological rigour, best practice in research design and research ethics, can lead to poor quality results. The challenge is to speed up while still producing good quality work. Doing research in a hurry can be described in three phases, each of which must be accelerated: designing and initiating the research; undertaking the research;

Conclusion

The record-breaking warm temperatures in more than 15 countries across Europe during the first week of 2023 reduced the demand for heating and provided some short-term relief from the surge in energy prices. Yet, estimating how long the crisis will last is unwise. Current predictions are that gas prices will remain high in Europe for years rather than weeks or months. If research does not capture learning in this period, society will have less information and analysis to guide responses to the

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:

Yael Parag reports financial support was provided by Israel Science Foundation. Tina Fawcett, Nick Eyre and Sam Hampton report financial support was provided by Innovate UK and by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. The corresponding author, Yael Parag, is on the editorial board of the journal ERSS.

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