Elsevier

Journal of Cleaner Production

Volume 195, 10 September 2018, Pages 1581-1599
Journal of Cleaner Production

Squandering Australia’s food security—The environmental and economic costs of our unhealthy diet and the policy Path We’re On

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.072Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Scenario modelling of Australian food system and diet indicates potential to become a net importer of key nutritious foods.

  • Environmental, economic and resource issues will worsen, and increasingly threaten Australia’s future food security.

  • Health and economic cost modelling show that productivity and health costs of unhealthy diets will be significant.

Abstract

While historically Australia has been a major exporter of food commodities and is generally considered to be “food secure”, our inter-disciplinary modelling of Australia’s food system and contemporary diet demonstrates that Australia is likely to become a net importer of key nutritious foods such as nuts and dairy if it continues along its current policy path. Furthermore, this occurs in the context of accelerating international debt, complete dependence on imported oil and declines in Gross Domestic Product per capita. Coupled with no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing water deficits around many capital cities, these factors indicate increasing threats to Australia’s food security. These strategic challenges arise from past and current policy choices and trends, including continued consumption of an unhealthy diet. Their effects are modelled for the coming decades using an innovative scenario simulation based on comprehensive accounts of physical processes in Australia’s economy simulated in the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework. Our analysis further employed health and economic cost modelling based on burden of disease data, conservatively demonstrating that productivity and health costs of unhealthy diets would be at least three billion Australian dollars for the 2025 Australian population if we were to continue on this trajectory.

Introduction

Food security is recognised as a significant global problem and considerable research has focussed on addressing the question of how to produce enough food to feed a growing population with finite resources and also mitigate and adapt to climate change (Cassidy et al., 2013, Godfray et al., 2010a, Smith et al., 2013). Australia is currently considered to be food secure—domestic production of most major food groups equals or exceeds domestic consumption; Australian farmers produce the equivalent of 90% of daily domestic food supply and export enough to feed an additional 40 million people (DAFF, 2013).

Global concern around the future of food is intensifying (Coates, 2013, FAO, 2015a, IPRI, 2015, Lawrence et al., 2013, Millar and Roots, 2012), with evidence mounting of the impacts of climate change, water scarcity and energy costs (for example) on food production, alongside continued urbanisation and degradation of agricultural land (Cadilhac et al., 2011b, Ceccarelli et al., 2010). Increasing incidences of ‘food shocks’ are occurring as declining energy stocks and fiscal measures and political or trade agreements reduce access to food or viability of farming for significant global populations (Anon, 2006, Suweis et al., 2015). These and other factors are driving civil disturbance and unrest worldwide, with the largest movements of migrants and refugees since World War II. This may be just the beginning, with the real impacts of climate, water, food and economic destabilisation still to come (ABS, 2006, Suweis et al., 2015). While some nations, like China and the United Arab Emirates, have clear intentions and actions underway to secure future food supplies for their populations, many others—like Australia—have an assumed ongoing surplus and a strong faith in the market economy to secure any additional stocks required. Further, the common political narrative (Commonwealth of Australia, 2015a) sees Australia’s economic future continuing to come from the land and its resources on which it has long depended.

However, increasing population, resource constraints (land, water, energy, fertilisers), climate change impacts and growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have implications for future Australian food security, with evident global repercussions. Although Australia’s land area is substantial, only 6% is arable land suitable for intensive soil-based agriculture such as cropping and sown pasture (ABARES, 2010). Most of this arable land is located on the coastal fringe of the continent, coinciding with major urban centres and fossil fuel deposits. Since population increases are occurring mainly in urban areas (ABS, 2013a), their expansion (ABS, 2008) often displaces highly productive agricultural areas (Carey et al., 2016b). Yields per hectare in Australia are also diminishing due to various degradation processes (National Land and Water Resources Audit, 2001, PMSEIC, 2010). This will intensify current dependence on imported and limited fossil fuel based fertilisers, making food production increasingly vulnerable to shocks and stresses in the global economy.

The productivity of dry-land farming—which constitutes the majority of the Australian agricultural sector—is likely to be negatively impacted by climate change (Gunasekera et al., 2007). Increasing temperatures due to climate change will increase heat stress on crops and livestock, decreasing productivity. At the same time, increased evaporation due to warmer conditions and potential increased water demand from the mining and energy sector will reduce water availability for irrigation on an already arid continent. Mitigation measures for climate change may also put further pressure on agricultural land availability if the transfer of land from agriculture to forestry to offset emissions or sequester carbon becomes necessary (Keating and Carberry, 2010). Due to these pressures, tensions between food supply and demand are likely to occur, with implications for future food security (Ramsey and Gallegos, 2011).

The critical issue of food production is only one aspect of food security, which also entails issues of access, utilisation and affordability (Farmar-Bowers et al., 2012). A coherent understanding of these issues requires a ‘food systems approach’ (Ingram, 2011), in which food system activities (namely production, processing, packaging/distribution and consumption) mediate the bidirectional relationship between environmental resources and public health nutrition status (Lawrence et al., 2015). Greenhouse gas emissions, resource intensity and health concerns associated with the prevalence of meat-based diets, now increasing significantly in developing countries, is a case in point (Friel, 2010a). Unfortunately there is a general lack of research and scenarios exploring these wider issues underpinning food security (Ericksen et al., 2009).

Instead, a narrow ‘production-volumes’ perspective is common, illustrated by recent Australian government research and reports. Scenario modelling employed by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) “…to investigate the possible response of world food prices, food production and trade to the projected increase in demand” concluded that increases in agricultural productivity and trade liberalisation were required (Linehan et al., 2013). Although environmental outcomes were considered, the ABARES research focused heavily on the economic value of food production and trade. The most recent Agriculture Productivity Report (Commonwealth of Australia, 2015a) promotes an economically competitive production system with sparse consideration of climate change, future resource constraints or other food system challenges. The narrow perspective overlooks the economic value of a production system that promotes healthy diets. Similarly, the National Food Plan (DAFF, 2013) was founded on expansion of production, without adequate consideration of the impact of this on the health of the nation. A simplistic focus on efficiency is also evident internationally in the FAO-UNEP Sustainable Food Systems Programme (FAO, 2015b).

This contrasts with concerns that neo-liberal productivist approaches are proving incapable of guaranteeing national food security. Earlier scenario modelling provided insights on this, identifying tensions between the food required for a healthy diet for Australia’s growing population and that which could be produced using traditional broad-acre agricultural methods (Larsen et al., 2011, Turner et al., 2012). This work was mainly focused on the state of Victoria, and explored the implications of three scenarios that diverged from the current state, substantially in some cases. No scenario achieved comprehensive food security – scenarios resulted in either significant imports of key foods, environmental deficits or economic problems.

This earlier research did not quantify health implications associated with the current unhealthy diet (inconsistent with the recommended number and type of food group serves for population groups as specified in the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (reference) and the health and economic benefits of shifting to a diet consistent with the Australian Dietary Guideline recommendations. In Australia, the majority of the population are not consuming the recommended number of serves for each of the five nutritious food groups while consuming 35% (adults) and 39% (children) of energy from non-essential ‘discretionary foods’ (ABS, 2014). In addition, excessive dietary energy intake has resulted in 63% of adults and 25% of children being overweight or obese (ABS, 2013b). These dietary imbalances and excesses are linked to a wide range of non-communicable diseases which are a leading cause of death and disability in Australia. Dietary risk factors are now the leading contributors to the burden of disease in Australia contributing to over 500,000 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and approximately 36,000 deaths annually (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2015b, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2015c). Since 1990, high body-mass index (BMI) has overtaken smoking and is now the second highest ranking risk factor for disease burden, resulting in over 400,000 DALYs and over 18,000 deaths annually. Currently, over 18% of the total burden of disease in Australia is attributable to these two preventable risk factors, namely poor diet and high BMI. (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2015a). In addition to the health impact of these modifiable risk factors, there is also a significant economic impact on society as a result of lost productivity and health care costs.

In this paper, we improve on earlier food security analysis by modelling the food system with a national coverage and incorporating economic costs of the current unhealthy diet. Our analysis also differs from earlier scenario modelling that was based on divergent scenarios; here, we explore near-term environmental and economic ramifications of ‘The Path We’re On’, incorporating substantial detail on contemporary policy positions and resource exploitation trends, including heavy reliance on fossil fuel use and mineral exports. An analysis of the current Australian diet completes the scenario, thereby enabling an assessment of the Australian food system’s ability to meet current demands.

We first outline the components of our analytic approach, which involves inter-disciplinary scenario modelling, and subsequently summarise the assumptions and settings of ‘The Path We’re On’ scenario. While the scenario settings focus specifically on the 10-year period to 2025, the results section typically presents simulation outcomes to 2040 in order to highlight impending environmental, resource and economic issues. We discuss the interpretation of our results, including factors such as sensitivity and reliability, and then present our conclusions – that Australia’s food system is insecure when viewed in a whole-of-economy perspective.

Section snippets

Inter-disciplinary scenario modelling approach

Food systems are complex socio-ecological entities (Lawrence and Worsley, 2007). Patterns of consumption influence, and are influenced by, health, economic and environmental factors. Analysing food systems requires a coherent assessment of the interactions between these factors, and an awareness and incorporation of factors and patterns that cannot necessarily be forecast from historical trends.

Scenario analysis, and later scenario modelling, have long been used by government planners,

Simulation outcomes for The Path We’re On

Since the foundations for food security and economic activity are our natural resources (healthy soils, clean water, stable climate, good-grade minerals, biodiversity) (Lawrence et al., 2015), we present indicators for these first. Subsequently, food balance accounts are provided, which essentially indicate a proximate measure of food security in terms of Australia’s dependence on imports. This leads into a consideration of economic outcomes, first at the macro level (e.g., GDP and debt), and

Discussion

Our inter-disciplinary analysis of Australian food security avoids the usual pitfall of presenting the implications of unhealthy diet in solely health terms by situating diet within a comprehensive account of economic and environmental assessments. The coverage of our analysis provides finer detail on health costs, coupled to a broad strategic view of environmental and food security measures. This depth and breadth is intended as the basis for developing policy options for addressing food

Conclusions

This modelling has revealed serious tensions in Australia’s desired energy use, land use, food production and population health that will emerge by 2025 and subsequent years. Overall, the environmental, economic and food security outcomes of The Path We’re On scenario are challenging. Australia becomes substantially reliant on imports before 2040 for many nutritious food types, particularly nuts, fish and dairy. This situation occurs in the context of the current diet in which the consumption

Acknowledgements

Lawrence, Ryan, Friel, Turner, Larsen, Ogilvy, Moodie, Candy, James and Ananthapavan are researchers within an Australian Research Council Linkage Project, ‘Modelling policy interventions to protect Australia’s food security in the face of environmental sustainability challenges’ (LP120100168). Lawrence, Moodie and Ananthapavan are researchers within a NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Obesity Policy and Food Systems (APP1041020). Turner was a Senior Research Fellow in the Melbourne

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